The right has not secured an absolute majority in the general elections to be held on 23J. The PP will almost certainly win the elections, but the battle for each seat in the 52 constituencies will determine if the right and the extreme right add up to more than 176 deputies and can repeat their pacts at the national level in city councils and autonomous communities. Right now, PP and Vox do not have that scenario guaranteed.
That is the photo drawn by the Simple Lógica tracking for elDiario.es, the last one to be published before the ban on broadcasting electoral polls comes into force. This latest poll also affects the fierce fight for third place between Sumar and Vox, with both parties practically tied.
According to this latest estimate, the PP will win the elections with 32.2% of the votes, without its percentage having changed compared to the last tracking. Of course, they lose a deputy due to the rise of the PSOE: Alberto Núñez Feijóo would be at the head of a parliamentary group of between 130 and 138 deputies, compared to the 88 with whom Pablo Casado left the party in the 2019 elections.
The PSOE would be in second place with 28.6% of the votes, an increase of two tenths compared to the last tracking. It is his third consecutive promotion after the fall that the ‘face to face’ meant for the Socialists. With these results, Simple Lógica estimates that Pedro Sánchez will maintain between 106 and 114 deputies, compared to the 120 he now has.
The fight for third place is once again tied, with just a tenth of an advantage for Vox. Santiago Abascal’s party would obtain 13.9% of the votes, which would translate into 34 to 40 deputies, a decrease compared to the 52 it now has.
Vox has risen compared to the last tracking, which allows it to be one tenth above Sumar. The formation of Yolanda Díaz would now obtain 13.8% of the votes and between 33 and 39 deputies – now Unidas Podemos had 35 and Más País two.
With these results, the right has an absolute majority within its reach, but it is not guaranteed at all. In the best of scenarios, in the event that both PP and Vox get the deputies in the upper part of the forks, they will add 178 votes in a hypothetical investiture, two more than necessary. In the event that both are in the lowest part of their forecasts, they will only add 164 deputies between them.
The left, for its part, finds it impossible to reach a majority only with an agreement between the PSOE and Sumar: in the best of cases they would reach 153 deputies; at worst they would be left with only 139.
Feijóo and Abascal rise in valuation
The latest evaluation of the political leaders once again leaves Pedro Sánchez as the candidate with the best grade, with a positive evaluation of 45%. Yolanda Díaz drops after having occupied the first position in the last tracking and now remains with a 42.1% positive assessment.
Alberto Núñez Feijóo continues in third place, again with a rise in his rating, which leaves him with a note of 32.6% positive ratings. Santiago Abascal also rises, although he closes this series of tracking as the worst valued candidate, with a score of 18.9%.
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