CIS October 2023

CIS vote estimate (in % of the total valid vote)

The PSOE would win the general elections but would do so by a narrow margin of just one tenth, according to the barometer of the Sociological Research Center (CIS) for October. The socialists fall nine tenths in a month while Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s men recover half a point. For its part, Sumar is consolidated for now in third place with more than two points ahead of Vox, which has dropped one point since September.

The CIS barometer for the month of October – prepared between the 2nd and the 6th – arrives after the failed investiture of Alberto Núñez Feijóo and after Pedro Sánchez has held a first round of negotiations with the parliamentary groups. The PSOE candidate has assured that he already has a first proposal on the amnesty law, and that now he will discuss it with the rest of the parties in search of his support.

The CIS data reveal that this month the voting expectations of the socialists, if elections were now repeated, have worsened. They went from 33.5% in September to 32.6% in October, a drop of nine tenths. The result of the barometer leaves us above the results of 23J (31.7%) and as winners of the elections, but the cushion on the PP has been reduced to a minimum.

The Popular Party rose half a point in this barometer and managed to bring its disadvantage with respect to the PSOE from 1.8 points to just four tenths. Now he would obtain 32.2% of the votes, compared to 31.7% a month ago. Of course, the CIS estimates that they would still be below the electoral results of 23J, when they won 33.1% of the votes.

Sumar not only remains in the third place for which it fought on 23J and which it did not reach by only one tenth, but the CIS affirms that it would now obtain 12.7% of the votes, four tenths more than in the elections and eight more than just a month ago. The formation led by Yolanda Díaz thus distances itself from Vox, which collapses this month.

The far-right party would obtain 10.1% of the votes in new elections, according to the CIS. This data places Santiago Abascal’s party one point below the estimate from a month ago and 2.3 less than in the general elections. The fall threatens to leave Vox below the 10% barrier at a particularly difficult time for the party, faced with the PP in Gijón and the Balearic Islands and with suspicions about its financing.

Below the four large parties, the CIS estimates that ERC would obtain 1.9% of the votes, Junts 1.3%, Bildu 0.9 and the PNV 0.8, the same result that the BNG would achieve. .

The CIS of October 2023 compared to 23J

CIS vote estimate (in % of the total valid vote)

Regarding the assessment of the leaders, only three tenths separate Sánchez, Díaz and Feijóo. The acting president of the Government wins with a score of 4.51, but the second vice president and leader of Sumar is only two hundredths behind, with a score of 4.49, and wins by the minimum over the president of the PP, who is left with a 4.48. Santiago Abascal repeats as the worst rated with a score of 2.83.

This month’s barometer also includes the assessment of acting ministers. Of the entire Cabinet, Margarita Robles (5.29) and Nadia Calviño (5.21) approve, while Yolanda Díaz is the third most valued but already below the approval (4.77). On the other hand, the ministers with the worst rating are Ione Belarra (3.46), Irene Montero (3.54) and Fernando Grande Marlaska (4.03).


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