The PP would win the general elections again with one more point than on July 23. But the good news for Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s party comes in small print: firstly, because its rise undermines Vox, its only support to reach the absolute majority and, secondly, because it is unable to distance itself from the PSOE. The socialists also chain their third month of growth and prevent the popular ones from escaping. Sumar drops three tenths but maintains a cushion in third place against the extreme right.
The October barometer data from Simple Lógica for elDiario.es leave a clear general picture similar to that of September: the two big ones rise and their allies fall. But as on other occasions, the specific details provide more data and allow for a more precise electoral x-ray. On the right, Vox loses more than the PP wins; On the left, the PSOE rises more than Sumar loses.
With these data, the PP would win general elections again if they were held now. It would win with 34.1% of the votes, one point more than on 23J and five tenths above its results from a month ago. The popular ones fell considerably in August, after the elections, but they have been rising in these three months.
But the PSOE does not lose step, according to the survey. In his case, he would now obtain 32.3% of the votes compared to 31.7% in the general elections. Like the PP, the socialists also fell after 23J and have been recovering month by month. The increase compared to September is five tenths, like the popular ones, so the distance between the two remains at 1.8 points.
Third place remains in the hands of Sumar. Yolanda Díaz’s party would now obtain 12% of the votes, three tenths less than a month ago and on 23J, but the fall of the extreme right allows it to retain the third position it achieved in September with even more margin. In the generals she was one tenth away from achieving it.
Vox collapses. The far-right party has gone through one of its most complicated political moments with the breakdown of the government pact in Gijón, the resignation of its advisor in Extremadura and the shadows over its financing revealed by elDiario.es and monitored by the Court of Auditors that They forced the resignation of their manager on the 6th. Now, Santiago Abascal’s party sees how this situation translates into a loss of one vote estimate point in just one month, to remain with 10.7%. Vox obtained 12.3% of the votes in July and rose in vote estimates in August, but its fall since then has already exceeded two points.
Vox now has the least loyal electorate
Part of Vox’s results are explained by the fact that it has gone from being the party with the most loyal electorate to presenting the worst data in this section. Only 69.3% of Abascal voters would repeat, compared to 21.4% who would now take the PP ballot. The Popular Party and the Socialists are the ones that best retain their voters, both above 78% loyalty, while Sumar maintains three out of four voters, but loses 10% to the PSOE.
These results leave a tight fight between the two ideological blocs that had already narrowed before the elections and that now remains at an advantage of only six tenths for the right, when in June it was almost eight points.
Sánchez and Díaz give ground with Feijóo on the rise
Regarding the assessment of political leaders, Pedro Sánchez remains in the lead although it falls from 42.2% to 41.4% this month. Yolanda Díaz also drops, although in her case only three tenths, to remain with a positive rating of 40%.
Third place goes to Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who is making a comeback this month. Although he starts from very low data, the leader of the PP manages to go from 23% to 27.7% in one month, although he is still far from fighting for second or first place and a long way from his best data.
The worst valued is, for another month, the leader of Vox. Santiago Abascal only obtains a positive rating from 15.6% of those surveyed, although this increases compared to last month, when he obtained 14.4%.
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