He elected president Javier Milei negotiates against the clock to try to take office on December 10 with some mitigating circumstances at his disposal weakness of origin to govern. The assembly of his new cabinet, with ups and downs in dribs and drabs, is also crossed with the search for support from governors and legislators in Congress. The sector led by Mauricio Macri of Together for Change, the former Cordoba governor Juan Schiaretti and Florencio Randazzo, are part of these negotiations.
The long-awaited governance to make “reforms and a shock adjustment” will face a fragmented Congress with weak “libertarian” representation, and a social impatience that can affect people on the street any measure that is announced and jeopardize the “agreements with the caste” that Milei is negotiating. This post-election week, assemblies in workplaces have already begun, warming up for what is to come, and on Saturday women’s organizations mobilized throughout the country, inaugurating protests and demands towards the new president-elect.
Javier Mieli’s La Libertad Avanza will have only 38 deputies out of 257 (15%) and 7 senators out of 72 (10%). In the case of the Lower House, needs to get 91 votes to achieve a quorum of 129 to meet. In the The Upper House has an even more adverse scenario: it is missing 30. Who can you ally with to achieve a quorum and pass laws?
He sector led by Macri of Together for Change is first on the list. The bad news is that despite the former president’s efforts, Milei is not enough with the contribution of his troops. Although all numbers are provisional, So far there are about 32 PRO deputies aligned with Macri. to support the initiatives of Javier Milei. Furthermore, within what today continues to be Together for Change, there are 4 other monoblock deputies who would accompany him (like Espert, Lopez Murphy, and others from Salta and Tucumán). Inside of UCR there may be about 3 “waywards” to join in supporting him. The number for The quorum is still far away: 52 deputies are missing. In it Senate, it is estimated that the PRO could contribute 4, the UCR 1, and another 3 from provincial blocks that today make up the coalition. This adds up to 15. 15 more to go.
The future of this alliance in Congress It will depend on how the dispute for the presidency of the Chamber of Deputies ends.. A coveted place of power, which is 3rd in the line of presidential succession. The names being considered: Cristian Ritondo from PRO, Florencio Randazzo from Schiaretti, and Oscar Zago of the libertarian space. Zago has a varied career: he joined the UCR and was close to Angelici, then he joined Macri and was a legislator since 2005 and is currently a legislator for the Milei space. The Libertad Avanza deputies want one of their own at the head of the Chamber. The new government will need someone with a lot of waist to negotiate laws with all spaces, including sectors of Peronism. A difficult role for the governing party, which is the 3rd force of Deputies. The first minority, to whom by regulation the presidency would correspond, is Unión por la Patria with 105 deputies. own, which with allied spaces could bring together 113 wills (those who campaigned for Massa: the missionaries, the Rio Negro, the Santa Fe socialists and the Cordoban De la Sota). Next is Together for Change with 94 if it stays together. Difficult.
Cristina Fernández seeks to retain the provisional presidency of the Senate (2nd in the presidential succession). In the Upper House, which will be chaired by Victoria Villarruel, Unión por la Patria is – for now – the first minority with 33 senators (against 7 from La Libertad Avanza). He has the plus of 3 safer allies (2 from Misiones and 1 from Rio Negro). If any of the Peronists, who today several point to a possible “center” (Espínola and Kueider), join them, they can reach half plus one of the total members, and achieve their own quorum. If this scenario occurs, the Milei-Villarruel tandem could be followed in the line of presidential succession: a Peronist and then the PRO.
Milei is not the only one who has contradictions. The tension in Together for Change is at its maximum. Although many want the coalition to remain united (and they need each other in the provinces they co-govern), if Ritondo is president of the Milei Chamber, doesn’t he push the sector that does not openly support him to break up? Is the PRO going to stand up for all of Milei’s proposals, whatever they may be?
A little more than a week left so that the mystery of the authorities of the new Congress is revealed. On Tuesday December 5 the Senate It will be the session where the elected legislators take office and the authorities are voted on. In the case of Deputies will be on Thursday, December 7.
In the give and take, it is the alliance that Javier Milei sealed with Juan Schiaretti, confirming one of its officials in the next cabinet (Osvaldo Giordano in Anses, running to Carolina Píparo). This It brings something more to Congress, but it is not substantial. In Deputies he would allow him to add just 4 more votes, including Florencio Randazzo. And in the Senate, only Alejandra Vigo.
With this picture of alliances in Congress, Milei’s government would reach the number of 81 deputies (48 are missing for a quorum), and 16 senators (14 are missing).
Therefore, the not aligned with Macri of Together for Change, are considering the possibility of creating a “center space” who are negotiating Emilio Monzó and Pichetto in Deputies and Juan Carlos Romero in the Senate. In Deputies, they are betting on gathering approximately 50 deputies (if they manage to add larretistas, radicals and the Civic Coalition). In the Senate they could bring together between 7 and 18 wills (depending on the location of the UCR, and the Peronists Kueider and Espínola who left the Unión por la Patria bloc, although they campaigned for Massa). The real possibilities of this space being key in both Chambers depend centrally on how the UCR is defined., which has the highest volume of votes (about 30 in Deputies and about 13 in the Senate). This sector, dominated by Gerardo Morales and Martín Lousteau, is quite resistant to the new elected government.
If this “center” is formed, they could be the key for Javier Milei to reach the magic numbers to meet and have a majority to approve laws. But it is not the only one: we will also have to see the behavior of the legislators who respond to the governors of what is today Union for the Homeland. After the experience with the Macri government, we saw how many Peronists (who later joined the Frente de Todos), gave him the votes to approve key laws. Let us remember that Macri did not have his own majorities in Congress.
Today are 8 provinces governed directly by Unión por la Patria, of which 4 are more in the milleista sights due to their more collaborative past with the Cambiemos management: Tucuman (Jaldo), The Rioja (Quintela), Santiago del Estero (Zamora) and Catamarca (Jalil). The other 4 are Buenos Aires (Kicillof), Formosa (Insfran), Tierra del Fuego (Melella) and La Pampa (Ziliotto). Of these 8 provinces that they govern, only in 3 did Massa win the ballot (Buenos Aires, Formosa and Santiago del Estero), in the others did Milei triumph. Of the distribution of power in the 24 districts of the country, there are 4 governed by provincial forces that campaigned for Massa: Missions (Passalaqua), Black River (Wertilneck), Salta (Saenz) and Neuquen (Figueroa). Nothing prevents us from thinking that there could be realignments of these provinces, if Milei has something to offer them. Neuquén has a long malleable tradition of aligning itself with the ruling party in power. Even one of the deputies elected by La Libertad Avanza from that province responds directly to Governor Figueroa (Nadia Marquez).
The relationship with the governors is already crossed by the future of public works. Milei threatens to leave it without state financing and have the private sector take over. It may be their way of “hitting to negotiate.” But there are other actors that enter into the equation: the UOCRA of Neuquén came out this week to warn about layoffs.
The only political representation that ensures the independence of the government and the negotiations of the traditional parties is the Left Front Unit that in Deputies now has a bench of 5 members. Christian Castillo joins Bregman, Del Caño, Vilca and De Plá. A left that always bets on organization from below in places of work and study, and will have a presence on the streets and in Congress.
In this porting and sum of weaknesses, today we are facing a more contradictory situation in the relationship between governors and legislators in Congress. That Milei manages to align the support of some governors of Together for Change does not necessarily imply alignment of wills in Congress. This adds problems in the search for governability, and brings the internal noises of the yellow coalition into the equation.
The “League of governors” of Together for Change has 10 provinces: 5 in the hands of the UCR, 4 of the PRO and 1 more aligned with Macri. But in several of them there is the paradox of poor support in Congress, or failing that, very fragmented.
He extreme are San Juan (Orrego-PRO) and San Luis (Poggi-close to Macri). In neither of the two provinces do they have senators, and in the Deputies they only have 2 for San Juan (who are not with Macri) and 2 from Puntanos (1 responds to the governor and the other is from the PRO but is not currently among those aligned with the former president). In other cases, such as Autonomous City of Buenos Aires (Jorge Macri-PRO), does not have senators aligned with the “hawks”, in Deputies they are divided almost in half between the two wings of the current coalition.
It remains to be seen how the new governor of Santa Cruz. The oil leader Claudio Vidal has his own provincial seal (Ser), and has 2 deputies and 2 senators.
Depending on how the alliance map is reconfigured, it is not ruled out that for the first time in history, Congress has the capacity to reject Decrees of Necessity and Urgency (DNU) in both Chambers, further complicating the tools that the president-elect can use. The Supreme Court It can take on a new role in settling disputes that do not find resolution in parliament.
The difficulties faced by the new government of Javier Milei in Congress, They open the way for the street and the organization from below in unions, neighborhoods, universities, gain weight and be a leading actor to tip the balance in defense of the interests of workers, groups such as the women’s and diversity movement, students, environmental organizations.