If they ask you, Juan Grabois He says that he is not a Kirchnerist. But his campaign spot leaves no doubt which side of the peronist internal plays: there he melts into a hug with the Vice President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.
– Great Homeland Front (@FtePatriaGrande) March 10, 2023
She would have told him some time ago, “Stop fucking around, you have to do politics,” according to what she said Grabois when he presented his book Los Peores, with the governor Axel Kicillof. And he followed his advice: “I kept thinking maybe he’s right, Now I am a candidate for president. At least while Wado de Pedro is not a candidate -according to him- or Cristina herself. This is how John XXIII was launched.
“Cristina did not tell me that she is a candidate” – she later clarified in an interview with Novaresio – “but she is not against it either.” No political position on her resume, Juan Grabois he wants to show himself as a outsider inside of the Front of All and says that he would be a better president than Alberto Fernandez o Mauricio Macri.
But it’s been a while Great Homeland -his political front- joined the regime of traditional parties, as a kind of left wing of Kirchnerism. Thus, under Peronist discipline, its deputies voted for the 2023 Adjustment Budget and contribute their own to the political volume of Sergio Massa.
Grabois y Great Homeland sit in a “borrowed” K space, waiting for some other candidate, while vowing to stem the flight of disillusioned votes to the Izquierda Unidad Front, which in the last election positioned itself as the third national force.
John XXIII: Grabois promises, the IMF submits
While the internal ones are defined, Juan Grabois has already launched his campaign. “I promise” -he says as a slogan- “Before it was said that politicians promise, but don’t comply. Now they don’t even promise.”
His strongest proposal has been: one lot for each family. Project that poses as a kind of agrarian reform.
“In 4 years I make at least 1 million lots for Argentine families and we solve 80% of the housing deficit. I know how it’s done, you don’t have to expropriate anything, you don’t have to fight too much with anyone“, promises Grabois. His plan would be oriented to lots for housing and for small agricultural producers. He also promises to urbanize the neighborhoods. And build 20,000 social rental apartments for young people in the City of Buenos Aires.
The housing deficit is 3,800,000 families throughout the country, so the calculation does not close. But outside of numbers, the most complicated part of the proposal of Grabois that is to say that you can conquer land to live and work, “without fighting too much with anyone” y without affecting the interests of large private property.
Even if the project Grabois you want to do it only in tax land (public), you will meet local government deals with real estate speculators and other companies. Such was the case with the great taking of guernicain the province of Buenos Aires.
Thousands of families were evicted from a vacant lot without property titles, by the government of Axel Kicillofwith the heavy hand of Sergio Berni and unfair negotiations Andres Cuervo Larroque. Kirchnerism decided to defend the business from the contris and left children and women victims of gender violence on the street.
Here is another reflection. Yeah Grabois is willing to drop his candidacy before Pedro’s Wado Or another candidate K: Why would a Kirchnerist government take a different path than the repression that it has already deployed in the face of the housing crisis throughout the province?
But even if we admit that Juan Grabois he would be able to carry out his promise without fighting too much with any large owner, company or mayor: the necessary urbanization of the neighborhoods and the conditioning of the lots, demands an amount of money and resources that are being cut and remain “seized” by the fiscal deficit targets and other impositions of the pact with the IMF.
Without confronting the adjustment and the Fund, there is no favorable solution for the working people and the popular majorities: neither in housing, nor in any other area.
This is clear to him Left Front Unity who proposes a public works plan that generates genuine jobs with rights and that promotes urbanization and construction of low-income housing. In addition to advancing on idle housing and the concentrated ownership of large landowners.
To achieve this, the proposal is frontal: it is necessary to ignore the external debt scam and put all the resources of the Economy according to the needs of the working people and the popular majorities. Without proposing an independent and combat solution, there is no possible “agrarian reform”.
An outsider in front of all
Grabois seems to want to show himself as a outsider, inside the Front of Allwhose profile can attract the disillusioned votes that Kirchnerism on the left escapes.
The word in English refers to an individual who seems to come from outside “politics” (the political regime). Like the case of Pedro Castillo in Peru, on the left or Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil on the right.
Founder of the Movement of Excluded Workers (MTE), Juan Grabois He is known to be a close admirer of the Pope Francisco and an outstanding referent of the pro-government “social movements” nucleated in the UTEP.
This sector in 2019 followed the formula Alberto Fernandez-Cristina Kirchnerand first joined the Frente de Todos and then the Government with some officials, such as emilio persico (Evita Movement) at the Ministry of Development.
Although Juan Grabois has never held political office, is a member of the Front of All across the front Great Homeland. Its deputies are Itai HagmanFederico Fagioli (Evita Movement) and the cartonera deputy Natalia Zaracho (MTE).
Patria Grande: bends but does not break
This is the block threatened to break with the Frente de Todos during the short time that Silvina Batakis was minister. But the tension was short-lived reaffirmed their membership in the governmentwhen the minister Sergio Massa agreed on the succulent soybean dollar for the field, along with a minimal financial assistance for homeless peopleonly for the end of the year.
Juan Grabois explained that they had wanted to break up due to “the lack of redistributive measures”, but that these “appeared late” at the hands of Sergio Massa. So they could “at least feel the satisfaction that firm and consistent collective action pays off in building social justice.”
Prior to this agreement, Juan Grabois proved combative: He was a spokesman in some events and marches together with the leadership of the UTEP. The “excluded” workers and organized in the “Popular Economy”, came to converge in the streets with the independent organizations of the Government, nucleated in the Picket Unit -who throughout the year and until today deployed mobilizations and camps of thousands of families, against the adjustment.
But UTEP’s plan of struggle, whose banner was the Universal Basic Salary Bill, ended almost without having begun. The project will sleep in a drawer and the year-end bonus has already been spent.
Between Patria Grande and Juan Grabois, they maintained the discipline of the block and stopped the deployment of forces of their movements, to accompany the management of Sergio Massaalong with Kirchnerism and the union leaders.
For his part, Massa continued the adjustment agreed Martin Guzman with the IMF and deepened it. With rate increases, budget cuts, poverty pensions, low wages. Along with the adjustment and transfer of income caused by inflation.
The dynamics of rise in inequality social continues.
Patria Grande: hide to fight and agree
Inside the Congressthe deputies of Great Homeland -together with the Kirchner deputies- had a similar attitude of threatening to fight and then agree, facing the two most important votes that took placerelated to the debt scam contracted by the government of Mauricio Macri with the FMI.
– Debt regeneration: negative and abstentions
March 2022. The renegotiation of the debt -that the deputy and pre-candidate for president, Myriam Bregman described it as a colonial pact and the Left Front Unity rejected in Congress and on the streets with other organizations – it was an awkward vote for The Campora y Great Homeland.
A large part of Kirchnerism was gambled on the negative vote or abstention, although with well-studied accounts to guarantee a quorum. Then they decompressed this tension, fueling the departure of Martín Guzmán, the minister of the renegotiation.
In the Patria Grande block: Itai Hagman spoke against the agreement, but abstained; Natalia Zaracho y Frederick Beans they voted against.
Since the Government and the opposition of Juntos voted for the agreement with the IMF: large businessmen increased their profits at the cost of a drop in the income of workers. It was a transfer of more than 20 billion dollars from the pocket of the working people to sectors of concentrated economic power.
– Budget 2023: in favor of adjustment
October/November 2022. After having threatened to “run away” from the Frente de Todos, and having already reconciled with Massa, Patria Grande raised its hand to vote in favor of the budget adjustment designed by the minister under IMF supervision. Kirchnerism did the same. It was a seamless vote by Peronism and the Frente de Todos.
The Unity Left Front was the only political force that rejected the Adjustment Budget, within Congress and in places of work, study and in the neighborhoods. Outside of the rights that asked for greater adjustments.
The precandidata Myriam Bregman He denounced: “The payment of interest on the fraudulent debt left by Macri is increased and all social items are cut, it is the smallest budget in relation to GDP in this century. We are talking about an attack and a deep cut.”
“This is designed in Washington: the message of the Executive Power itself says that this is agreed with the IMF” -said his running mate, Nicholas Del Caño.
This time there were no combative speeches by the representatives of Patria Grande, the political discipline of the Government’s plan continued.
By January 2023, not satisfied with cutting in Health, Housing and Education, Minister Massa cut more than 300 billion in food policies and other social programs. For his part, Victoria Toulouse Peace, continues the adjustment in the Enhance work. AND UTEP continues on truce.
The Peronist internal facing the presidential elections, for now will be defined between Kirchnerism, Albertismo and Massismo. Juan Grabois y Great Homeland They want to show themselves as an “independent” alternative, but seek to contain the flight of disillusioned votes to the left, while they wait for Kirchnerism to define a candidate.
towards the end of the game, it is probable that the attitude of threatening to fight and then agree, ends up leading Patria Grande to vote for the candidate with the greatest political volume. Outsiders or not, they have joined the regime of traditional parties and Peronism. The “lesser evil” 2023 could be Sergio Massaalthough there is nothing defined.
Apocryphal prophecy for John XXIII, since everything remains to be seen.