Chronicle of a defeat announced. Editorial of “El Círculo Rojo”, a program on La Izquierda Diario that broadcasts on Thursdays from 10 p.m. to midnight on Radio Con Vos, 89.9.

  • The Government of Javier Milei suffered its first major political defeat with the fall of its Omnibus Law megaproject that scandalously foundered in Congress. The project returned to the Commission at the proposal of the ruling bloc when it received votes against it in particular, one after another, which limited and almost denied the vote in general, especially in the “delegated powers” ​​that the Government had requested to make. and undo in many areas and were denied.
  • This defeat—as it is often said about inflation—is “multi-causal.” Is it due to the incompetence and improvisation of a Government that seems to consume what it sells and truly believes that it has captured popular favor forever and, furthermore, is the one chosen by the “forces of heaven”? There is something of that. Political messianism as a response to the chronic crisis that Argentina is going through was a characteristic of all governments in recent years: supplanting the inability to find a political solution with the overvaluation of one’s own strength or personal capabilities. Milei only exacerbates this and takes it to delirious levels, perhaps in line with the magnitude of the crisis of representation of which Milei is a symptom.

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  • Was the setback due to the limits that it found “from above” with the so-called “dialogue blocks” that at the same time represent different local and business interests that were affected by the general reset that Milei proposed? This also played a role.
  • Did the defeat respond to an expression in the superstructure of the limits that it found “below” in the most regimented strike with mobilization of 24E and in the most combative mobilizations with great prominence of the neighborhood assemblies and the left against the Congress combined with the intransigence of the deputies inside? Undoubtedly, if those mobilizations and those challenges to Patricia Bullrich’s undemocratic repressive protocol had not existed, the outcome could have been different. Things would also have been different if the voice of the legislators who combined the parliamentary fight with the extra-parliamentary one had not been present.
  • Which of all these factors was decisive? It is not easy to decipher that equation because politics—like power—is relational: one’s strengths or weaknesses are closely linked to those of his opponent, the adversary and the enemy.
  • All factors played a role in this political defeat, combined with accelerated social deterioration caused by the immediate economic guidance (which is relatively independent of this failed law, the Government is right about that). A roadmap designed and applied by Minister Luis Caputo and that begins to shake the “architecture of 56%” that the Milei obtained in the runoff. I don’t know if you perceived the same thing, but the high transportation rates these days seemed to cause many people (among them, a large part of a social base that voted for Milei) to begin to realize the harsh consequences of the economic plan. for your daily life.
  • It was that discomfort that transformed into doubt – and from doubt to discomfort there is only one step in a restless society like Argentine society -, along with what was happening in the “architecture” of those who did not vote for Milei and who were active , which prompted the first rallies and cacerolazos and strikes with strong mobilizations throughout the country. Because, let’s see, there was a lot of analysis and hypotheses about the consistency and anatomy of the “mileist people” (if it exists), but the dynamics of the “anti-mileist people” that played a role and were part of the scenery.
  • Where are we today? Well, the Government says that it conducts surveys that show Milei with still high percentages of support or positive image (although below what other presidents achieved at this point in the administration: a month and a half of government), but there are others opinion studies that consider that a “new anti-government majority” is already under construction. In any case, this political result of the law in Deputies (added to the judicial obstacles that the Decree of Necessity and Urgency has) shows and at the same time contributes to the dynamic being more in tune with the second option.
  • Now, we said that this specific combination of forces present in this specific situation enabled this political defeat that further weakens the Government. However, it must be said, the adjustment plan via liquefaction of salaries and income continues, it is alive and well, as they say, and important sections of the DNU are also in force. The latest situation report from the Mirador de la Actualidad del Trabajo y la Economía (MATE) assures that “inflation as a mechanism for regressive transfer of income is, for now, the only important measure of the Milei government. 13.7% fell on real salary in the first month of office; The minimum retirement fell 14% compared to December 2022. Retirees who do not receive the minimum did not obtain bonuses, so they lost more than half of their purchasing power in the last 8 years.
  • Perhaps the most relevant thing that the defeat of the Government raised are the conditions and potential for future struggles that are more or less immediate: it exposed the fragility of the Government, it made it clear that (beyond the debate on the polls, which are a way to “measure” the social temperature, not the only one) there is no social base that “proudly” defends the Government out loud, much less mobilizes. He also revealed the political incompetence of government personnel, which is also an active factor. His mystical delusions that collide with earthly politics. And it became clear that that unbeatable “fortress” that many clouded people attributed to the Government does not exist and does not have the resources to impose its plan.
  • What is all this for? To convince more and more people that it is possible to defeat the entire plan (the economic plan and the DNU). If with a strike (half a strike, actually) and these mobilizations a resounding defeat was achieved, what would happen with a serious plan of struggle, widely discussed and voted for in workplaces, in neighborhood assemblies, in the movements of the unemployed? The question answers itself.
  • Of course, this opens another discussion of a more strategic nature: what to do in this scenario? Once the Government is hit, will each of them go and negotiate their own (the governors, the CGT), which is a way to “save” Milei’s plan by limiting it?, or will they fight to defeat a program that if only 10% survive, is it a new social disaster? Obviously I consider that this second option is the one that should be promoted once the “forces of heaven” suffered a defeat at the hands of the forces of the ground.

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    Politics / Opinion / National Congress / Javier Milei / The Red Circle / Omnibus Law


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