In this article we take a look at the general outlook of Ethereum, doing a detailed price analysis and observing some on-chain indicators.

Yesterday, ETH tried in vain to break down the USD 3,000 wall, which acts as the main resistance at the moment, being rejected up to the current prices of USD 2,908.

Nonetheless, the crypto remains the best in form in the crypto market, with performance even superior to that of Bitcoin.

On the on-chain front, the data shows a long-lived and strong network, supported by an increase in the number of validators and coins blocked in staking, as well as a medium-high trading volume.

All the details below.

Ethereum drives FOMO on crypto markets: ETH price analysis shows the asset’s willingness to break the USD 3,000 resistance

At the beginning of the week, decidedly dull, due to yesterday’s closure of the US markets for the President’s Day holiday, crypto markets are driven by Ethereum and its recent attempt to surpass the key price of USD 3,000.

While Bitcoin recorded its local high on Thursday 15 February, at a level of 52,816 USD, Ethereum showed more determination by marking a new annual high yesterday at 2,984 USD, without, however, managing to close the figure round.

Price analysis shows relative strength for ETH, which absorbs every dip with conviction and keeps the market’s expectations high.

Traders are optimistic about the future of ether and are betting on the positive outcome of the approval of spot ETFs in the USA for the second cryptocurrency by market capitalization, with several Fund Managers such as Franklin Templeton BlackRock, Fidelity, Ark and 21Shares, Grayscale, VanEck, Invesco and Galaxy and Hashdex which have already filed their requests with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

If this goes through, ETH could even approach 3,500 USD, a level that has not been seen since April 2022, and then probably even 4,000 ETH.

Just to give you an idea of ​​the timing, the SEC still has 96 days before the final deadline to make a decision on whether to approve/reject

On the more technical price front, the analysis highlights how from October 2023 onwards Ethereum has been channeled into a very compact bullish trendcapable of holding the 50 daily EMA very firmly and constantly updating new highs after each brief correction attempt.

More specifically, from mid-January onwards the bulls made their voices heard unanimously, bringing ether prices from 2,200 USD to the current values.

However, the psychological threshold of 3,000 USD could now oppose new bullish incursionswith the RSI showing the first signs of slowing down in an overbought trend.

In any case, the on average high volumes recorded in the last trading sessions and the recent breakout of 2,700 USD seem to favor a positive scenario for the cryptographic currency, which will most likely see the resistance in front of it break, albeit following various efforts.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) daily price chart

In the field of derivatives, Ethereum data analysis showcases a open interest definitely encouragingwhich last week reached an aggregate value across all business markets of more than 7.7 billion dollars, a value that had not been seen since November 2021.

The funding rate also shows positive signs with a positive financing rate to request leverage on all the main markets, and with numbers higher than those recorded in the last 6 months.

This means that speculative interest in Ethereum is high and that speculators are positioning themselves (and have largely already positioned themselves) with the idea that the crypto will grow in price in the short term.

Be careful of volatility in this period because it could lead to forced liquidations: in particular, the levels of 2,877 USD, 2,870 USD and 2,840 USD are the prices that could trigger losses for longs exposed to excessive leverage.

Ethereum price analysis
Weekly price chart of Ethereum (ETH/USD)

I dati on-chain del network Ethereum

After analyzing the price of Ethereum, let’s see what the on-chain data of the decentralized network tells us is interesting.

Also in this case the general outlook is largely positivewith most indicators showing the presence of fertile ground for further growth of the asset.

In particular, we observe how the number of ETH deposited on the Beacon Chain is constantly growing, as is the number of new validators who are added to the network providing their support.

To date, approximately 30.87 million ETH, equivalent to a value of over 9 billion dollars, are blocked within the protocol PoS with approximately 900 thousand validators between individual users and LST platforms.

Considering a circulating supply of Ethereum close to 120 million coins, we can say that over 25% of all ETH in circulation they are stuck in the Beacon chain.

This only decreases potential selling pressure and causes a shortage of ether in the crypto markets.

This data, combined with the potential digital scarcity that will be triggered by the probable arrival of spot ETH ETFs, could push the coin towards very ambitious price horizons if demand is felt at all.

ETH staking beacon chain

Very interesting to note also how the average volume recorded in transactions on the Ethereum chain remained high on average in these first weeks of 2024reaching the maximum level of 4 billion USD daily, reached as a maximum in March 2023.

High volume supports speculative interest in the price of ETH, which coincidentally increased coinciding with the cryptocurrency’s rally from October onwards.

Airdrops, fomo for new DeFi protocols and new memecoins have supported the network’s trading volume throughout 2023, with a boost in metrics in recent months.

on chain volume ethereum

In conclusion, it is considered appropriate to show this analysis which indicates the quantity of Ethereum on-chain addresses that have an average purchase load price lower than the current prices, ergo they are in profit.

In this regard, it should be noted how from November onwards the percentage of profitable addresses compared to the total network has undergone a surge, going from 40% to the current 94%.

This means that 94 out of 100 addresses have a positive PNL compared to their purchase price and could potentially unload their positions at any moment.

Usually in the past, when the percentage of gaining addresses reached this value, very violent selling sessions followed which led to a sharp drop in the price of ETH.

However, it is worth pointing out that this value remained high for several months during the previous bull market, so even in this case we could see a lot of time pass before the storm arrives.

eth supply in profit


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