Devaluation pressures. Speculators on the attack, how far can the run towards the dollar go?
With Alberto Fernández in retirement, asking for a film to be made about his life, the dollar is at the center of the scene. just 10 days ago the “blue” was trading at $400 and this Monday it closed at $462making himThe exchange gap with the official exceeds 105%. The Government is running out of dollars despite the great benefits delivered to multinationals in the countryside, making it possible for the crisis to lead to a devaluation and further aggravate the social situation.
The employers of the countryside had already been showing little intention of liquidating their grains at the new exchange rate. The exchange rate at $300 does not seem enough to them and at the beginning of the third week of the program they have barely settled US$1,390 million, well below the US$2,750 million that had been settled in the first eight rounds of the version. original of the soybean dollar, last September.
The drought, rising inflation, the stagnation of production and the foreign debt crisis are not an emergency for large agricultural companies that led them to export more; on the contrary, they see an opportunity to lower sales and speculate with a devaluation that allows them to grow their income. The Government hoped that the new privileged exchange rate at $300 would be well received by the ruralistas, but given the instability, aggravated by the proximity of the elections, the agro-exporters are betting on a crisis of international reserves in the Central Bank (BCRA). .
Massa is negotiating against the clock with the International Monetary Fund an advance of the funds that should enter the country until the end of the year to try to put a stop to the run. But Between this Friday and Tuesday of next week, US$ 1.3 billion should be paid to the IMF for interest and capitall of the credit taken by Mauricio Macri and endorsed by the Frente de Todos; some analysts say that reserves could be close to 0 when the transfer is made.
bets for the dollar
While inflation accumulated in the first quarter of almost 22%, cash with liquidation, the way companies choose to become dollarized, had risen 20.6%; while the MEP dollar barely beat the increase in prices, with a rise of 23.8%. The blue dollar was the most lagging exchange rate: until the end of March it was rising just above 11%, but with the rise in recent days it is already up more than 33% so far this year and the ceiling may not be close .
With the crisis that broke out after the resignation of Martín Guzmán, the exchange gap between the blue dollar and the official price rose to 160%, a distance of this type would imply that it currently exceeds $570. But unlike the other bullfights faced by this government, in less than four months will be the PASO where it will be possible to vote for candidates like Larreta and Bullrich who propose to release the exchange stocks or Milei who campaigns for dollarization. With those possibilities on the horizon, the chances of the situation getting out of control are greater.
Power over foreign trade is concentrated in a handful of companiesAmong the main ones are: Cofco (China), Cargill (USA), ADM-Toepfer (USA), AGD (Argentina), Viterra (Glencore, Switzerland). These groups that come from making multimillion-dollar profits are using their privileges to further improve their conditions at the cost of worsening the living conditions of the population that are already critical, 40% are submerged in poverty. The government gives them more and more in the hope of being able to get to the elections without the economy exploding.
The living conditions of 40 million people cannot depend on the interests of a few dozen businessmen. Establish a state monopoly of foreign trader would make it possible to decide what is exported and when to put production according to the needs of the vast majority.