Why the US cannot win a war against Iran

“Iran has an arsenal of hundreds of thousands of precision-guided ballistic missiles, satellites in space and eyes almost everywhere. If a war is declared or started, all American assets within 0-3000 kilometers of Iran’s borders will be bombed so viciously that no missile defense system will be able to stop it.”, Alon Mizrahi.

In a concise and direct analysis, Alon Mizrahimanaged to outline how difficult it would be for the US to defeat Iran militarily in an open war.

Translation:

“Let’s spend our coffee hour playing a little war game in which the US decides to confront Iran and commit to an all-out war against it:

See this map. Where could the US organize an invasion of Iran?

East of Iran you will find Pakistan, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan. Not a big triple. South of Iran: the Persian Gulf that completely dominates. Nothing good.

West of Iran: Iraq and Türkiye. The first is a definite no, the second is a not so probable that it must be taken for granted. Turkey will not go to war with Iran over the US and Israel – a war that will not only certainly decimate it, but a war that the Turkish people will be fanatically opposed to.

To the north of Iran is the Caspian Sea. It’s no use.

Azerbaijan and Armenia present an opening, but how will hundreds of thousands of NATO troops get there (let alone undetected)? If they travel by sea, they will have to cross the Mediterranean and the Black Sea and virtually physically pass through Istanbul. Not just politically complicated, but a long journey that gives Iran plenty of time to prepare.

Remember the months and months it took the US to gather forces for the invasion of Iraq? It took about 6 months – without interruptions.

The problem is that with Iran, there is no way to simply build up forces near the designated target’s borders.

Iran has an arsenal of hundreds of thousands of precision-guided ballistic missiles, satellites in space and eyes almost everywhere. If a war is declared or started, all American assets within 0-3000 kilometers of Iran’s borders will be bombed so viciously that no missile defense system will be able to stop it.

And all those dozens and dozens of American bases spread across the vast area surrounding Iran? How will the US defend itself under an attack on a scale of 1000 October 7th attacks combined?

Furthermore, Iran has the most sophisticated anti-ship missiles in the world (Russia’s Yakhont), of which it probably already has thousands. This means that no surface ship will be able to get close enough to Iran to make it an effective strike weapon (is this the first time we have seen a drowning aircraft carrier? I believe potentially so).

The US will have to rely on air superiority, but this will be a very difficult, almost impossible task. US planes will have to travel a long way to get to Iran (and back), and the country has invested massively in air defense systems, including some of the most sophisticated in Russia’s arsenal. The US will lose many planes that will take years to refuel, and Iran will be able to hit with ballistic missiles and drones all the bases from which they take off in Europe or the Middle East.

Another tool that the US will use are cruise missiles fired from submarines: but this also does not win wars and can be costly against a rival who has prepared for this.

A full-scale invasion of Iran will potentially require millions of troops and take years. The West is simply incapable of an effort of this type: where will they find millions of young people willing to die at sea to occupy a country thousands of kilometers away? Today? Give me some time.

All this time, Iranians will defend their home and their independence. The West will try to colonize and destroy them. They will have Gaza in mind.

I didn’t mention Israel because it is virtually irrelevant in this war. Hezbollah alone is enough to paralyze it and keep its military busy for months.

Bonus point: think about what happens to energy prices in a real war with Iran. $500 for a barrel of oil? 1000$? $2,000? Everything is possible.

Guess which country will continue to be the largest international producer and exporter of oil and gas and steal all those many, many extra trillions. You guessed right. Russia. If the Persian Gulf is on fire, Russia will become a global economic superpower (at a time when the US is weakened militarily and economically and cannot even fake a military threat against them).

Another bonus point: Do you think Iran cannot or will not attack on American soil? Think again. From cyber attacks to large-scale professional sabotage at military level and guerrilla warfare, in a war with Iran life in the USA will definitely not be normal, and not just because inflation will be something like 200%, and thousands of deaths will occur. soldiers will return home in coffins every month for a long time.

The US cannot win a war against Iran. And I believe all parties involved know that. The only thing that remains unknown is the extent to which the US has become insane and self-destructive under the influence of Netanyahu and AIPAC.