Projections from our Cluster17-«Le Point» survey show RN and the left alliance tied. The presidential field, in turn, is weakened.

Will the extreme right become a majority in the National Assembly? If, during the European elections, Jordan Bardella’s party stood out with 31%, our latest Cluster17-Le Point survey before the legislative elections on June 30 and July 7 credits it with 29.5% of voting intentions, tied with the left-wing bloc of the «Nouveau Front Populaire», which would obtain 28.5%.

In projection of seats, the RN would elect between 195 and 245 deputies. Less than the Ipsos poll, commissioned by LR last December, which gave a large, even absolute, majority to the RN (between 235 and 305 deputies). To remember: the National Rassemblement currently has 88 deputies.

As for the «Nouveau Front Populaire», the range of parliamentarians would be between 190 and 235. “Apparently, the RN is well positioned. He will be in the second round in almost all constituencies,” explains political scientist Olivier Costa. “There will be few triangular votes, as it is necessary to obtain 12.5% ​​of the registered votes to go to the second round. This is the great difficulty for Renaissance candidates, caught between the left and the RN. Macron’s strategy was to act quickly to avoid an agreement between left-wing parties and attract social democratic voters. This ‘front populaire’ is a disappointment for him.”

Raphaël Glucksmann’s voters are 64% in favor of the left-wing alliance. According to Jean-Yves Dormagen, founder of the Cluster17 institute, “the majority of left-wing voters support the ‘Nouveau Front Populaire’. A third of Glucksmann’s voters will not vote for the ‘Nouveau Front Populaire’. Twelve percent plan to vote for different left-wing parties and fifteen percent for Renaissance.”

With 18% of voting intentions, the presidential field would reduce its number of seats to a third (70) or form a weakened group of 100 deputies, far from the current relative majority of 249 Macronists. The Republicans, in turn, would constitute a group of 25 to 35 deputies. The LR electorate is divided over the alliance between the RN and the LR, supported by Éric Ciotti: 47% are in favor and 49% are against. Their voting intentions are divided between LR (74%), Renaissance (10%) and RN (6%).

The tripartition of the political field between a central bloc, the left and the extreme right appears to be being challenged. “We are seeing a polarization and a half between the ‘Nouveau Front Populaire’, the RN and a very weakened Renaissance party,” explains Jean-Yves Dormagen. “Renaissance will have difficulty remaining in the second round in most constituencies. They become a useless vote. Renaissance only attracts six out of ten Emmanuel Macron voters. There will mainly be duels between the left and the RN.”

Even though Renaissance’s electoral base has been reduced, concentrating on retirees, the most educated and the richest, it is these voters who hold the keys to the campaign, according to Jean-Yves Dormagen. “Depending on whether they vote for Renaissance or the ‘Nouveau Front Populaire’, they will maintain the tripartition or accelerate polarization. They will be the arbiters between the ‘Nouveau Front Populaire’ and the RN. Currently, among those who will choose, they will vote in three out of four cases for the ‘Nouveau Front Populaire’.”

The participation rate will be crucial to the results. In the Cluster17 survey, 60% of respondents say they will certainly vote. A higher participation rate than in the 2022 legislative elections (46.2%). “We must be cautious when making election predictions,” observes Jean-Yves Dormagen. “In this election, small shifts produce big effects. With more participation, there would be more triangles. If Renaissance gains 2%, that changes its qualification potential and its chances of getting seats. There are at least 100 extremely undecided constituencies that could swing either way.” The answer will come on July 7th.

By Ismaël El Bou-Cottereau
Published on 06/14/2024, updated on 06/15/2024
No Le Point


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