TikTok is just the beginning

Under pressure from the US, TikTok faces a choice between sale and extinction as Beijing resists losing control of the app that “shapes minds and dominates global youth“

In April, Congress passed a bill that would force TikTok and other social media apps that are “controlled by a foreign adversary” to sell themselves to buyers in the US or friendly nations. If apps don’t sell, they can no longer be legally downloaded from app stores. This so-called “TikTok ban” — which isn’t really a ban, just a rule about corporate ownership — was scheduled to go into effect the day before the upcoming presidential inauguration.

TikTok’s Chinese parent company, ByteDance, had many months to sell TikTok and would have undoubtedly found a willing buyer. Instead, he refused. In fact, now TikTok is apparently planning to shut itself down completely, going far beyond the penalty that US law itself stipulates:

TikTok plans to shut down its app for U.S. users on Sunday, when a federal ban on the social media app could go into effect, The Information reported on Tuesday, unless the Supreme Court moves to block it… If the TikTok shutdown for all US users, the result would be different from that determined by law. The law would mandate a ban only on new TikTok downloads from the Apple… or Google… app stores while existing users would still be able to continue using the app for some time.

The reason, according to Bloomberg, is that Chinese authorities really don’t want the TikTok app to get out of their control:

Beijing officials strongly prefer that TikTok remain under the ownership of parent company ByteDance Ltd., the people say, and the company is challenging the impending ban with an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court. But the justices signaled during arguments on Jan. 10 that they will likely uphold the law.

As many observers have noted, this tells us two important things. First, it tells us that Chinese authorities are the ones calling the shots regarding TikTok. This should come as no surprise, given that ByteDance is legally required to comply with CCP directives. 1

Second, the refusal to sell the app tells us that the Chinese government would rather see TikTok destroyed than see it fall into American hands. Notably, this same government made little fuss in 2020 when the US forced a Chinese company to sell the gay dating app Grindr to an American company. Why shut down TikTok and leave untold billions of dollars on the table instead of just selling the thing like Grindr was sold?

One possibility is that it is an attempt to anger young Americans in the hope that they will demand that Trump and Congress repeal the 2024 law. But a simpler explanation is that Chinese leaders simply think that TikTok, unlike other apps, is so important that they would rather destroy it than see it slip out of their control.

Why? Some supporters of the divestiture bill argue that TikTok will transfer Americans’ personal data to the Chinese government — something it has already admitted to doing in some cases. Others are concerned about the social harms of TikTok. But the bigger concern is that by controlling TikTok’s algorithm, the Chinese government may be able to advertise to young Americans — and silence Americans who say things it doesn’t like.

In fact, there’s some pretty strong evidence that TikTok already does just that. The Network Contagion Research Institute at Rutgers University has produced a series of articles about TikTok’s manipulation of information to suit the Chinese government’s wishes. The standard methodology is to compare topics on TikTok with similar topics on Instagram and YouTube. NCRI staff find that the content on the different platforms is broadly similar, except for issues related to China. Here’s a chart from a 2023 article comparing hashtags on TikTok and Instagram:

And this is from the summary of a more recent study, which measured what types of content appear in people’s algorithmic feeds:

[Nossos] Studies have explored how TikTok, a Chinese-owned social media platform, can be manipulated to hide content critical of China while amplifying narratives that align with the Chinese Communist Party’s goals. Study I employed a user journey methodology, in which 19 newly created accounts on TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube were used to assess the nature and 20 prevalence of content related to sensitive Chinese Communist Party (CCP) issues, specifically Tibet, Tiananmen Square, Uyghur rights and Xinjiang. The results revealed that content critical of China was available much less than on Instagram and YouTube. Study II, an extension of Study I, investigated whether the prevalence of pro- and anti-CCP content on TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube aligned with user engagement metrics (likes and comments) that social media platforms typically use. to amplify the content. The results revealed a disproportionately high ratio of pro-CCP to anti-CCP content on TikTok, despite users engaging significantly more with anti-CCP content, suggesting propagandistic manipulation . (emphasis mine)

In other words, the Chinese government is actively silencing the opinions of Americans who try to criticize this government. Somehow I doubt that the First Amendment’s protection of free speech was intended to protect the right of foreign governments to silence American individuals from speaking their minds in popular public forums. That would be a very strange definition of “free speech”. Of course, I’m not a legal scholar, so I’ll have to wait for the Supreme Court to make that judgment and follow what they decide.

Another thing to note is which prominent Americans have indicated their opposition to the TikTok divestiture bill. The most prominent opponent, of course, is new President Donald Trump, who may have been influenced by a billionaire TikTok investor, or may believe that TikTok’s algorithm has been tweaked to benefit him. Another is Elon Musk, who has expressed opposition to the ban, consistent with pro-China stances on a range of other issues. In fact, Bloomberg reported yesterday that China was considering selling TikTok to Musk, although the company denied the report. Together, Trump and Musk could conceivably find some way to bring the CCP-controlled video app back.

So that’s where things stand. I think the outcome of the TikTok fight is important for several reasons. First, it is part of China’s attempts to put increasing pressure on America, potentially in advance of a major conflict. And, more broadly, it is an important indicator of whether liberal societies — defined as those that place primary importance on individual freedom and dignity — have what it takes to survive and thrive in the 21st century, or whether the next epoch in human history will belong to authoritarians.

The Chinese government is not our friend and is coming to get us

By Noah Smith