The ghost of menemization
A medium-distance look at the economic-political orientation of the Government beyond the current situation. Editorial of “El Círculo Rojo”, a program from La Izquierda Diario that is broadcast on Thursdays from 10 pm to 12 midnight on Radio Con Vos, 89.9.
- He public debate in the most political coalitions in Argentina it is quite distorted with respect to reality of economic and social indicators.
- What do I mean? Since there is a kind of competence around who is more capable or meets the best conditions to apply a adjustment that everyone considers “natural” y “necessary”the different political protagonists are located in relational terms in places that they do not correspond with his true Roadmap or with on practice.
- I try to explain better: the libertarians of Javier Miley and the most extreme wing of Together for Change represented by Macri o Patricia Bullrich they say you have to do wild fit and bestial and are in the extreme right; Horacio Rodriguez Larreta what tint (or hides) those intentions remains as if it were center right or even of centerand in front of all of them, the Front of All now under the command of Sergio Massa it looks like it’s in the center left Or in progressivism. In addition, it has the explicit support of Cristina Kirchner and Kirchnerism, so what doubt is there?
- Well, I propose to do a exercise what is compare the policy of the Government with the reality and the historical experiences recent, not with the others.
- In a magazine article Joints, Claudio Lozano (until very recently director of Banco Nación, that is, practically an official of this Government) talks about the menemization of the management of Front of All in general and with Sergio Massa in front of the Ministry of Economyin particular.
- Los main features of this process are: the ratification of the structural guidelines of a debt payer model; and extractivist profile and promoter of inequalities; regressive policies that impact on salaries, retirements, transfers to the provinces and, of course, the logical effect in terms of deceleration of economic activity.
- Lozano remembers a interview in which Massa said that the payments debt maturities for 2025 are on track and that money they are going to leave the gas export to Brazil that will enable the new pipeline that is being built and the increase in the oil export via the pipeline what is going to Chile with the planning of works YPF and with the resources you can give Dead cow. In immediate termsthis can be seen as a “solution” still urgent problem to avoid falling into defaultbut in the structural reality of the country means overexploit nature to deal with payments of an illegitimate debt and consolidate the reprimarization of Argentine exports. And, logically, without taking into account the great environmental impact who leave these enterprises.
- It is exporter frenzy is presented as “salvador” for the Argentine economy. But the data from the last 50 years —which are analyzed by Lozano— contradict such a possibility: if we compare year 1974 with the year 2021the exponential rise in exports matches the monumental collapse in salary. While exports both in constant and current values and in relation to GDP; real wages plummeted, unregistered salaried work increased, and poverty also took a huge leap. That is there is no linear relationship between the increase in primary exports and better prospects for the social set.
- Related to this, the agreement with the IMF promotes with a devaluation in installments, increase in rates and systematic rise in interest ratesand produces (through the loss of purchasing power of wages and the general adjustment of public spending) the contraction of domestic demandthe tendency to stagnation and through it seeks the price slowdown. The real wage dropmeasured through the RIPTE, accumulated during the year 2022 a retraction of -2.9%, being that the highest incidence of that loss concentrates from Massa management (December vs. June reports a drop of -3.9%). Added to this is the deterioration of the retirementsfrom Universal Child Allowance and the setting of the Primary Public Expenditure.
- Logically, that all this combo gave as result what participation of the wage masses in it income It keeps being below that in force at the end of Cambiemos’ term (43.6% vs. 45.7%).
- And you have to keep in mind that the anti-inflationary strategy via cooling of the economy also fails: the exchange rate gap generates devaluation expectations and in consequence, redial prices. The result: recession with inflation.
- Add to this some political facts: the support of the most powerful man in Argentina, Paolo Roccalas “carnal relations” con Kristalina Georgieva or those sent from Joe Bidenthe appointment as head of advisors to Alberto Fernández of the former CEO of Syngenta, Antonio Aracre and now, the rage of Victoria Toulouse Peace against the piquetero movements. Let’s shake all this crazy jugLet it rest and see the result. Good: reprimarization, use of strategic resources to pay debt, contain inflation via recession and low wages. It is not so difficult.
- Of course, the national and international conditions they are very many different. He neoliberalism what was it overwhelming in the 90’s’ It’s in crisis hoy and from the point of view national are absent two conditions: a catastrophic crisis with no way out like 1989 that played a disciplining role on society and the non-existence of defeats in witness struggles like those that enabled the privatizations. Now to account for the divergences in the relationship of forces does not prevent us from identifying the convergences in orientation and intentions. And, above all, visualize what we are facing.
Politics / Sergio Massa / Adjustment / Frente de Todos / Menemismo