The AEX price has performed fantastic in recent weeks and has scored price record after price record. Now the Amsterdam stock exchange appears to be running into resistance. Our AEX started well today, but then quickly fell back and is currently trading at 909.66 points.

The 5-minute chart clearly shows that the AEX is struggling to break past the level of 914 points.

AEGON as a trendsetter for the AEX

The Dutch AEGON currently seems to be the big trendsetter for the Amsterdam AEX. While the insurer’s results for Q1 2024 were slightly lower than those of Q1 2023 (decrease of 12 percent), the market is mainly optimistic about AEGON’s plan to purchase its own shares for 200 million euros.

AEGON plans to start buying its own shares in July. Despite this, the AEX is performing less well today, although this does not necessarily mean that the bullish momentum has completely disappeared.

The American stock markets did fantastic yesterday (as did Bitcoin) due to the slightly positive inflation figures. We received the new American consumer price index (CPI) yesterday and it came in exactly as expected at 3.4% on an annual basis.

Core inflation fell from 3.8% to 3.6% and in that respect also appears to be on the way down.

Why did Bitcoin and the US stock market soar yesterday?

Bitcoin and the US stock market reacted extremely positively to yesterday’s inflation figures. This is mainly due to the fact that expectations were dramatic in advance.

In the first quarter of 2024 we mainly saw inflation rise and for that reason the market had prepared for a negative surprise.

That didn’t happen. The CPI fell from 3.5% to 3.4% on an annual basis and core inflation therefore fell from 3.8% to 3.6%. On a monthly basis there was a small positive surprise to be discovered.

There, inflation rose by 0.3%, while a score of 0.4% was expected. However, even that score of 0.3% is still too high for rapid interest rate cuts. If we extend that increase to a period of 12 months, this results in an inflation rate of ~3.66%.

In that respect, there is no immediate reason for the US central bank to lower interest rates.

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