It is impossible to know who will be president as of December 10, but the result of the runoff will not modify the high amounts of foreign debt to which the State is tied. According to reports made by the OPC (Congressional Budget Office), andBetween December and February the new government will have to face commitments in foreign currency for more than US$ 7.2 billion. This figure is higher than the total of September exports (US$ 5,750 million) and being able to cover it will be complex, taking into account the critical situation of the Central Bank reserves (BCRA).
The maturities have at International Monetary Fund (IMF) as the main creditor, by accumulating payments for US$ 3,600 million, followed by more than US$ 1,500 million corresponding to public securities (although about half would be intra-State), another US$ 1,200 million in bills to public organizations and, finally, US$ 900 million with other International Organizations and the Club of Paris (as detailed by the OPC). Depending on the creditor, these commitments may be more or less difficult to refinance (cases between public organizations would be the simplest), but without yet taking into account the majority of harvest sales (which are expected in March and April), to renegotiate payments, obtain new loans or disbursements is very likely The future government chooses to deepen the adjustment to meet the demands of international capital. We have the recent example of when Massa devalued more than 20% after the PASO at the request of the IMF.
Javier Miley He had already stated that if elected he will apply cuts much higher than those agreed with the Fund until now y Sergio Massa has proven to be a faithful follower of the dictates of the international organization. The prospects for the coming months are for a leap in the attack on the income of the vast majority.
The consulting firm Ecolatina in a recent work estimates that “between 2024 and 2026 the Government must face maturities of more than US$53,000 million (excluding Non-Transferable Bills, Guarantee Bills, and Guarantees), that is, more than US$17,800 million on average per year. ”. These amounts are unpayable for the State, they turn the foreign debt into a means to keep the country subjugated and plunder the resources produced by the workers.
The Unión por la Patria candidate recognizes that the loan signed by Macri with the IMF “was not used to finance hospitals or schools, or to resolve economic stability, but rather it was used to finance the payment to investment funds,” but he evades mention that it was part of validating it in Congress at the beginning of last year, in the vote on the new agreement, when he presided over the Chamber of Deputies. For his part, Milei counts among its economic advisors Darío Epstein who has important ties with Blackrock, one of the main owners of Argentine debt bonds. The Libertad Avanza candidate has as a fundamental part of his dollarization plan to make a new jump to external debt.
Continuing to pay the illegitimate foreign debt, in the framework of a very critical social situation with poverty that affects more than 56% of children under 14 years of age and 40% of the population, is putting the interests of large businessmen first. and international capital, above the pressing needs of the unemployed, retirees, precarious workers and their families. The fight for sovereign debt ignorance It is one of the fundamental axes to reverse priorities and seek a solution to the serious problems faced by the majority of the population.