French far-right unlikely to secure majority in second round, poll reveals

The latest poll suggests a far-right majority could be blocked in parliament, with the National Rally falling short of the 289 seats needed to control the National Assembly.

French centrist and left-wing parties are trying to find a way to block a far-right majority in parliament — and a new poll shows it’s possible.

A Harris Interactive poll for Challenges magazine, the first since an anti-National Rally (RN) alliance was formed, indicates that Marine Le Pen’s far-right party may not win the 289 seats needed to control the 577-seat National Assembly.

According to this research, efforts by President Emmanuel Macron’s centrists and the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) bloc to block the far right as a so-called Republican Front (or Front Républicain) may be effective.

The forecast shows that the RN and its allies are likely to win between 190 and 220 seats. Meanwhile, the center-right Republicans (LR) — who have allied with Le Pen — are projected to win between 30 and 50 seats.

This outcome would likely avoid the possibility of a far-right minority government supported by part of the LR parliamentary group.

‘Republican Front’ Strategy

The poll came after the withdrawal of more than 200 candidates from various political parties who came third in their constituencies in the first round, with the aim of supporting the strongest candidate against the RN in the second round of voting on Sunday.

Before these withdrawals, polls estimated that the RN was on track to win between 250 and 300 seats.

When asked by TF1 TV if she was worried that the RN could fall short of the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority, Le Pen replied confidently: “No, I am very confident. The French have a real desire for change.”

According to the Harris poll, the NFP is projected to secure between 159 and 183 seats, while Macron’s Ensemble is expected to secure just 110 to 135 seats.

Other parties are expected to win between 17 and 31 seats.

What is the plan in case of a hung parliament?

If the result of the second round of voting confirms the projection of a parliament without a majority, France will enter a period of turmoil, with no faction securing enough seats to form a government.

Current French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has expressed optimism about the multi-party initiative to block a far-right majority, but rejected the idea of ​​the Ensemble forming a multi-party government in the event of a parliament without a majority.

Instead, he suggested that moderates collaborate on legislation individually.

Sources in Macron’s office say the president has also ruled out forming a coalition with the far-left France Unbowed (LFI) party led by Jean-Luc Melenchon. It is not known whether he has discussed other coalition possibilities.

These observations highlight that even if the RN fails to come to power, France could face prolonged political uncertainty until the next presidential election in 2027.

Le Pen willing to collaborate for absolute majority

Le Pen has indicated a willingness to collaborate with other parties if the RN fails to achieve an absolute majority.

His choice for prime minister, Jordan Bardella, has said he would refuse to form a government without a clear mandate.

According to the survey, more than 4 in 10 French people believe that none of these political parties will have an absolute majority in the National Assembly, while 35% believe that the National Rally will achieve this.

The survey was conducted online between July 2 and 3, with the participation of 3,383 people representing the French population aged 18 and over.

The quota and adjustment method was applied to the following variables: gender, age, socio-professional category, region and previous electoral behavior of the interviewee.

Via Euronews.