One of the indicators to determine whether the Bitcoin bull run is coming to an end is the ‘Value Days Destroyed (VVD) Multiple indicator. This indicator shows if large amounts of old Bitcoin (BTC) suddenly enter the market.

In the past, a peak in the VVD Multiple indicator correlated with the top of the bull run. The indicator is currently set Very high.

The alarm bells are going off

The VVD multiple indicator is currently at 3.03. But at the end of last month the indicator stood at 4.21. This is extremely high. Does this mean the bull run is almost over? Not necessarily. The high value means that large amounts of Bitcoin are being sold.

This normally means that the bull run starts to overheat and significant profits are taken on long-held coins. But it does not mean that the Bitcoin price will not rise further. For example, the VVD Multiple indicator peaked at around the local peak of $40,000 in early 2021. The price then rose to almost $70,000 in the following months.

False alarm?

According to this indicator, the bull run is in full swing. But there is another, more specific reason why the VVD Multiple indicator is currently so high. According to a analyst from Glassnode, this can be attributed to the significant outflow from Grayscale’s GBTC Bitcoin ETF.

The analyst says on X that Grayscale’s Bitcoin has been owned by the fund for a long time. According to him, the large volume associated with the strong outflows pushes the VVD Multiple indicator up. Since the SEC approved US Bitcoin spot ETFs on January 10, Grayscale has sold almost $16 billion worth of BTC.

So should we be concerned? It looks like a blank. Historically, the upcoming Bitcoin halving has been a major catalyst of the Bitcoin bull run. Based on this, the real fireworks have yet to begin.

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