The ‘face to face’ between Pedro Sánchez and Alberto Núñez Feijóo has given the popular a boost that already places them on the stage of being able to reach the Government with the help of Vox. The PP would surpass the PSOE by four points, the biggest advantage since the poll immediately after 28M. Half of those surveyed believe that the popular leader won the debate, compared to 31.2% who saw the PSOE candidate as the winner.
The daily tracking by Simple Lógica for elDiario.es indicates that Monday’s debate has raised the estimate of the PP’s vote by one point and has reduced that of the PSOE by seven tenths. The formation of Alberto Núñez Feijóo would now obtain 32.2% of the votes, compared to 31.1% of the previous tracking.
The effect is more beneficial for Feijóo when those votes translate into seats: the PP could get between 132 and 140 seats on 23J, that is, an increase of between 8 and 10 compared to the latest data. Right now his parliamentary group is made up of 88 deputies.
That rise allows him, now, to glimpse the option of governing with the help of Vox. The formation of Santiago Abascal would obtain 14.2% of the votes and between 42 and 46 seats. This represents a drop compared to the current 52, but would allow the two parties to associate to overcome the barrier of 176, which represents an absolute majority. Only in an unlikely scenario that PP and Vox were in the lower part of the fork would they stay at 174 deputies. In the event that both add up to the maximum, it will be 186.
These scenarios are improbable because it is normal that when one party is at the bottom, the other that competes for the same electorate has better results. So the most likely scenario is that both will be above 176 parliamentarians.
The ‘face to face’ has benefited the PP more in seats because the PSOE has come off badly. The Socialists fall seven tenths and their distance in front of the popular ones becomes more than four points. Now they would obtain 28.1% of the votes and suffer a significant decrease in seats: their parliamentary group would be reduced to between 100 and 108 deputies, compared to the 120 they now have.
Sumar, for its part, retains the third third position after losing six tenths in voting intentions and maintains only two tenths of an advantage over Vox. In fact, Simple Lógica estimates that both parties are in the same range of seats, between 42 and 46. The sum of the formation of Yolanda Díaz with the PSOE would now give, in the best of scenarios, a total of 154 seats.
Feijóo, winner of the debate
Simple Lógica has included in this tracking specific questions about the debate between Feijóo and Sánchez. Half of those surveyed, 50.1%, saw the PP candidate as the winner compared to 31.2% who opted for the PSOE candidate. 18.8% consider that neither of them was clearly imposed.
Feijóo is also imposed when respondents are asked who was more convincing. Almost 40% saw the PP leader face to face as very or quite convincing, a percentage that falls to half when asked about Pedro Sánchez.
These results also have their translation in the evaluation of the leaders. Sánchez remains in the first position, but falls one point in one day to a positive assessment of 42.4%. Feijóo, in third position, scratches two tenths, up to 29.6%.
Yolanda Díaz remains in second position with the same valuation as in the last tracking, 39.7%, while Abascal improves and stands at 18.2%.
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