Zelensky defies danger and brings ‘victory plan’ to the USA

President Volodymyr Zelensky is traveling to the United States this week to present a “victory plan” to his key ally in a bid to influence White House policy on the war in Ukraine, regardless of the outcome of November’s US elections.

Zelensky said he wanted to discuss the plan with President Joe Biden and his two potential successors, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, during his visit. He will also speak at the UN General Assembly this Tuesday (24). The Ukrainian leader declared that if the plan is supported by the West, it will have a profound impact on Moscow, including a psychological effect that could pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the conflict through diplomatic means.

“The Victory Plan envisages quick and concrete actions from our strategic partners — from now until the end of December,” Zelensky told reporters last Friday. He highlighted that the plan would act as a “bridge” to a second Ukraine-led peace summit, which Kiev hopes to hold, inviting Russia to participate by the end of the year.

Zelensky asserted that there is no alternative to peace, adding that “no war freeze or any other manipulation would simply postpone Russian aggression to another stage.” However, the positions of both sides remain far apart.

Zelensky wants Ukraine to be part of NATO and the European Union, in addition to demanding that Russia be expelled from all Ukrainian territory. He believes that this last goal can be achieved through diplomatic channels. On the other hand, Putin insists that any peace negotiations must begin with Kiev giving up parts of eastern and southern Ukraine and abandoning its plan to join NATO.

Zelensky’s trip comes at a critical time for Ukraine, especially considering that an eventual Trump victory in the November 5 presidential election could significantly alter Washington’s policy toward Ukraine, which currently relies heavily on US military and financial support. USA. In a televised debate, Trump refused to say whether he wanted Ukraine to defeat Russia and said he would try to end the conflict even before assuming the presidency, if elected. Kamala Harris, in turn, accused Trump of seeking a quick and unconditional capitulation from Kiev.

As the US elections approach, Kiev has shown strength, carrying out a risky incursion into Russia’s Kursk region on August 6 and promoting new weapons such as a “drone missile” and a ballistic weapon. Ukraine has also launched major drone attacks, including one that caused an explosion at an ammunition depot in Russia’s Tver region last Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Russia has intensified its drone and missile attacks, received Iranian ballistic missiles, according to the West, increased the size of its army, changed its nuclear doctrine and expanded its offensive in eastern Ukraine.

US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Biden is eager to discuss Zelensky’s “comprehensive strategy for winning this war” against Russia. Zelensky, in turn, explained that his plan is made up of a few key points and that “they all depend on Biden’s decision, not Putin’s”. On Friday, Zelensky detailed that the measures include Ukraine’s role in the global “security architecture”, battlefield decisions such as the Kursk operation, strengthening Ukraine’s arsenal and supporting the country’s economy.

Oleksandr Kovalenko, a Ukrainian military analyst, suggested that Zelensky may seek long-term aid guarantees through 2025 and seek a declaration of continued support beyond Biden’s term. According to Kovalenko, this is a crucial moment from a political and military point of view.

Zelensky will likely renew his request to Biden to authorize long-range strikes inside Russia, a move Moscow has warned could result in NATO members being considered direct participants in the war, provoking a response. Ukraine wants to target military installations up to 300 km inside Russia, such as airfields used for attack helicopters and warplanes.

As Russia, which currently occupies 18% of Ukrainian territory, continues its offensive, Ukraine seeks to ensure that its incursion into the Kursk region can serve as a bargaining chip in future negotiations or as an insurance policy against external pressure to freeze the conflict. . However, Kiev would need to maintain control of this territory, facing manpower and combat challenges against a much larger enemy.

Simultaneously, Russia advances toward Pokrovsk, a vital transportation hub. If the city is captured, Ukrainian logistics could be severely hampered, opening new lines of attack for Russian forces.

Kovalenko believes Russia wants to take Pokrovsk by the end of the year to strengthen its position in peace talks.

Ukraine hopes to promote a peace plan at a second international summit later this year and says Russia will be invited at the request of other participants. The first summit, held in Switzerland, was not attended by Moscow and was ignored by China and some countries in the Global South. Zelensky maintains that his summit initiative is the only viable peace format, criticizing as “destructive” a Sino-Brazilian proposal that calls for “de-escalation” and resumption of direct dialogue, without demanding Russia’s withdrawal.

Meanwhile, Ukraine faces its most challenging winter since the start of the war two and a half years ago, after Russian attacks damaged much of its energy infrastructure. The Ukrainian government is also dealing with growing economic difficulties and plans to raise taxes amid a $12.2 billion funding shortfall for the army.

Recent opinion polls reveal a shift among Ukrainians. In May 2024, about 32% were open to some territorial concessions to end the war, compared with just 10% in May 2022, according to Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of the Kiev-based think tank KIIS. However, most of these concessions would be temporary, without permanently relinquishing the territory.

For any peace agreement, the main requirement is a security guarantee, such as NATO membership, Hrushetskyi said. “Despite the negative trends, Ukrainians remain optimistic and believe in a better future, with Ukraine in the European Union and with adequate security guarantees,” he concluded.

With information from Reuters*