XRP price dropped 50% but signals point to a 20% recovery in March

The XRP price is under heavy pressure. Since October 2025, Ripple (XRP) has lost more than 50% of its value, closing lower for five months in a row. Sentiment is negative, but technical signals and on-chain data point to a possible turnaround in March.

XRP forms a double bottom around $1.30

On the daily chart, XRP appears to be forming a double bottom around $1.30 to $1.35. That level was maintained twice in February. A double bottom occurs when the price tests the same support level twice and then rebounds. If the price then breaks above the neckline, this is often considered confirmation of a trend reversal.

For XRP, that neckline is around $1.50. A convincing break above this level increases the chance of a rise towards $1.68 to $1.70, about 20% above the current price. That zone is above the fifty-day moving average, which acted as strong resistance several times in February.

Whales reduce selling pressure

In addition to the technical picture, the situation on the blockchain is also improving. According to data from CryptoQuant, the selling pressure from large investors, so-called whales, is clearly decreasing. In December they sold tens of millions of XRP on balance. That pace has now fallen sharply.

At the same time, larger wallets hold more XRP. Whales therefore appear to be selling less and possibly rebuilding positions.

A similar pattern occurred in April 2025. Shortly afterwards, the XRP price recovered by more than 50%. If large investors become net buyers again, this increases the chance of a rise towards $1.70.

There is still a risk of a decline towards 1 dollar

Yet the technical picture remains vulnerable. If the price is rejected again at the fifty-day average, a so-called bear pennant pattern can arise. In that case, a fall towards 1 dollar is obvious, about 30% below the current level.

Macroeconomic factors also play a role. Increasing geopolitical tensions and risk-averse behavior in financial markets could drain capital from crypto. In such an environment, it becomes more difficult for XRP to sustain a breakout.

March could therefore become a decisive month for the XRP price. A break above $1.50 opens the door to recovery. If that outbreak does not occur, a new phase of selling pressure threatens.