Will Bitcoin giant Strategy go to the S&P 500 after all? Analysts see a 70% chance

The share has fallen by tens of percent and the number of Bitcoin (BTC) purchases is plummeting. Yet a leading research agency sees opportunities for Strategy now. If the quarterly figures next week are better than expected, analysts expect that the company can easily make the step to the S&P 500.

Billions in profits could take Strategy to S&P 500

According to a new report from 10X Research, Strategy has a chance of being included in the prestigious S&P 500 index by the end of this year. The chance of that inclusion is estimated at 60 to 70 percent, provided the company presents strong quarterly results on October 30. For example, analysts predict a net book profit of as much as $3.8 billion, largely thanks to the increased value of the company’s Bitcoin reserves.

Inclusion in the index would be big news as it automatically leads to significant capital inflows. Passive index funds that track the S&P 500 are required to purchase shares of newly included companies. Moreover, these funds are popular among long-term investors, who often continue to invest monthly. This structural purchasing behavior can create billions in additional demand and an increase in the share price.

Since a peak of $456 in July, the share has been in a downward trend. For example, Strategy has lost 37 percent of its value since that peak. Still, 10X believes the bottom may be behind us. The report calls the sentiment around the share “exhausted”, but that could actually mark a turning point.

The share decline is accompanied by reduced purchases. For example, Strategy bought only 778 Bitcoin in October, a decrease of 78 percent compared to September.

The company remains by far the largest public BTC holder. It currently owns 640,808 Bitcoin. At a current price of almost $ 113,000, this amounts to a total value of $ 72.4 billion. Strategy purchased the tokens for an average of $74,000 each, giving the company a paper profit of no less than $24.9 billion.

Strategy gets speculative credit score

Strategy recently became the first Bitcoin-focused company to receive a credit rating from S&P Global, and that is a double signal. On the one hand, the assessment represents an important step towards institutional recognition. On the other hand, the rating of B- falls within the speculative category. According to S&P, the biggest vulnerabilities are extreme dependence on Bitcoin, limited business focus, low dollar liquidity and weak capital structure.

According to 10X Research, this may be the very moment in the cycle when liquidity returns to the market. If the expected profit of $3.8 billion is actually achieved, it could serve as a catalyst for a price recovery and formal inclusion in the S&P 500 on December 19.

In September 2025, Strategy was rejected for inclusion in the S&P 500, despite meeting all formal eligibility requirements. While companies such as Robinhood, AppLovin and Emcor Group were admitted, the selection committee decided to keep Strategy out. According to analysts, the extreme dependence on the Bitcoin price played a role: the company may have been considered too risky for a broad index, despite its profit figures and market capitalization.