The gold price has risen sharply in recent months and recently broke the barrier of $ 4,500 per ounce, on its way to the best year since 1979. At the same time, Bitcoin (BTC) is lagging behind and many altcoins are deeply negative. This seems contradictory, because gold and Bitcoin are often seen as protection against inflation and a weaker dollar.
In practice, however, it works differently: especially in times of uncertainty, a rising gold price can be a negative signal for Bitcoin.
Gold as a safe haven, Bitcoin as a risk
When investors become restless, capital shifts towards safety. Gold has had a reputation as a safe haven for centuries and therefore directly benefits from increasing uncertainty. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is still seen as a risk asset by many institutional investors. This means that Bitcoin is sold precisely at times when fear and caution prevail.
The current market clearly shows this. Despite a weaker dollar and falling bonds, Bitcoin fails to break through key resistance levels, while gold sets new records. This points to a fundamental difference in how investors currently view both assets.
Capital takes one side
Investors do not have unlimited resources. When gold performs strongly, it attracts capital that could otherwise have gone into stocks or crypto. In 2025, that difference will be strikingly large. Silver is well above the one hundred percent gain, gold is over sixty percent, while Bitcoin is trading slightly negatively and altcoins are showing heavy losses.
This makes it clear that the current gold rally is not the result of general risk appetite, but quite the opposite. Money flows towards certainty and away from speculation.
The gold rally as a warning signal
Gold’s recent rise is technically and historically exceptional. The price broke out of a symmetrical pattern and rose several percent in a short time, similar to previous breakouts that were followed by sharp moves. Based on previous patterns, gold could even move towards $5,300 to $5,700 per ounce in 2026, although many analysts expect a period of consolidation or correction first.
Importantly, such strong gold movements often do not coincide with healthy market conditions. Rather, they usually point to fears of economic slowdown, geopolitical tensions or financial instability. In those types of environments, risky assets have historically performed poorly.
Corrections often affect all markets
Another important point is that big gold rallies in the past have often been followed by strong corrections. These corrections varied from twenty to almost seventy percent. When such a phase arrives, it does not automatically mean that Bitcoin will benefit from it. In many cases, all assets fall simultaneously and investors temporarily resort to cash.
Source: https://newsbit.nl/waarom-een-stijgende-goudprijs-slecht-kan-uitpakken-voor-bitcoin/
