Who is winning the race for the White House — Biden or Trump?

With just over four months to go, the US presidential race is fierce.

Donald Trump maintains a lead over Joe Biden in most battleground states with less than four months to go until the November 5 presidential election.

It marks a remarkable resilience for Trump, who left the White House in 2021 with a record-low approval rating of 29% after some of his supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6. Last month, he became the first former president convicted of a crime.

Still, 48 percent of American voters would choose Trump for president, according to a recent NYT/Siena poll, compared with 42 percent for Biden. Only 35 percent of voters approve of Biden, and 61 percent do not.

With less than four months to go, here’s the status of the race.

What does the research say at the moment?

Trump and Biden are both polling at just over 40 percent, with Trump currently holding a slim lead of 0.2 percentage points, well within the bounds of statistical error, according to FiveThirtyEight averages. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who was shut out of the campaign’s first presidential debate, is at about 10 percent.

But U.S. presidential elections are not decided by national vote. Instead, they are settled by winner-take-all contests in nearly all 50 states, which send electors to the Electoral College. The candidate who secures 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes becomes president.

In four battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina — Trump leads by single digits. In three others — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — the race is essentially tied.

What are the issues that will decide the election — and who is leading on them?

The economy is the top priority for US voters — and Trump is winning on that issue.

Overall, 41% of voters trust Trump to handle the economy, compared with just 37% for Biden, according to the latest Financial Times poll conducted with the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business.

A CNN poll in April found that 65 percent of registered voters consider the economy “extremely” important to their vote — more than any other issue — and close to levels not seen since October 2008.

Persistent inflation has hurt Biden, and those who are most pessimistic about the economy are the voters most likely to want change in the White House. Among those who said the economy was “bad,” 41% said a change in political leadership in Washington would improve their perception of the economy, while 37% said it would improve with lower inflation and 14% said it would improve with better personal finances.

Other key issues include immigration — where polls suggest voters believe Trump is more competent than Biden — preserving abortion rights and reducing health care costs. The president is stronger on the latter two issues. His campaign has also put protecting democracy at the center of its agenda. But a recent Washington Post poll found that more voters in six battleground states trust Trump than Biden to address threats to U.S. democracy.

Most Americans don’t vote on foreign policy. But voters have consistently said they think the U.S. is spending too much on military and financial aid to Ukraine and Israel, according to monthly FT-Michigan Ross polls. That could help Trump.

While Trump did not say he would cut funding to either country, the former president made clear he expected other countries in Europe to increase their defense spending when it comes to confronting Russia. Republicans also blocked efforts in Congress to approve aid to both countries — only relenting in mid-April after months of impasse.

How voters view Biden and Trump as people may be the most important factor.

Most voters say Trump, 78, is more physically and mentally fit than Biden, 81, but they are less confident that Trump will act ethically in office. According to an April Pew Research poll, 62% of registered voters said they were not confident that Biden was mentally fit for the job, compared with 59% who said they were not confident that Trump would act ethically.

Last month, Trump became the first former U.S. president to be convicted of a crime — and yet the impact has barely made itself felt in the polls. About 90 percent of Republicans still view him favorably, according to a recent NYT/Siena poll, and 68 percent of registered voters said it made no difference to them.

Trump still faces other criminal charges, and while a majority of independent Americans believe Trump is guilty on them, according to a Politico Magazine/Ipsos poll, it is increasingly unlikely that any of the cases will be concluded before the Nov. 5 election.

The Supreme Court is also expected to decide soon whether Trump would be immune from prosecution for actions he committed while he was president.

Who has the most money and where is it being spent?

Biden had raised far more money than Trump in the race, according to his most recent quarterly filings from earlier this year. And Trump’s coffers have been drained by tens of millions in legal fees.

But Trump has been working hard to close the deficit, with a fundraising spree that included a $50 million donation from a reclusive banking heir. Other billionaire megadonors have also pledged support for his campaign.

Much of that money will be spent on ads. Biden’s campaign and its affiliated political action committees have already bought nearly $240 million in ads for the general election, according to the FT’s tracking of AdImpact data, compared with $85 million for Trump.

That money was earmarked for Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan and other battleground states that are poised to receive a barrage of ads as the election approaches. The two campaigns announced rival ad blitzes just before the first presidential debate.

Via Financial Times.