“The dollar is going to fall like a piano”he had said only five months ago the president Javier Mileiinsinuating that it could cost $ 700 (alleged change of convertibility in the 1990s) or even $ 600 (its “serious scientific calculation”). “Anyone who seems that the dollar is cheap, grabs the weights and Buy, don’t miss it champion“, said a month ago, the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo.
It was only one “Non forced error” of the government in the management of the reference interest rate so that they begin to come to light Structural economic problemsaggravated by the scheme itself (exchange, monetary and fiscal), and that they placed the Minister of Economy this Thursday in a virtual I beg the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to enable the disbursement planned of US $ 2 billion To calm exchange tensions.
In July the Wholesale dollar He had a 12.6% jump and closed to $1.357while the Retail dollar (National Bank) rose $ 165 and traded 13% above, closing this July 31 for sale a $1.380very close to the “upper band” of the exchange scheme announced at the beginning of April ($ 1,451). From that moment when the program was agreed with the IMF, The wholesale dollar rose 26% (Reference for financial imports and operations), as well as the retailer.
The Econo-Chanta number 1 saying that the dollar was going to fall as a piano to 600 pesos.
Milei is a scammer in everything. pic.twitter.com/hzKnmk4IeN– Nicolas del Caño (@nicolasdelcano) July 31, 2025
Milei’s “Slate Plan” Plan “
In the Construction of the official storythe reduction of the inflation rate would rely on a “chainsaw“On public spending, on the alleged” political caste “, and in the reach of the fiscal surplus (state income higher) that the IMF demanded. This would thus be linked to a” sanitation “of the central bank and the brake of the monetary issuance, and would be crowning with the “free” market game and deregulation.
But in facts, The only “anchor” on prices was the fixation of an appreciated exchange rateor “cheap dollar”, without a “direct” intervention of the Central Bank on the change market (Mulc), but quite direct on other fronts: millionaire sales in the future dollar, tendor tenders to raise interest rates, sale of bonds by ANSES and the Nation Bank, among other forms.
The government seeks to keep the dollar controlled To protect your main electoral asset: The brake on inflation. But, paradoxically, it does not have enough reserves (“fire power”) to do so. That is why, given the doubts of the financial capital and the uncertainty of the last weeks, it activated the “Platita Plan” for the banks: to raise the interest rate, trying to prevent the “released” weights after the elimination of the Lefi (fiscal liquidity letters) to go to the dollar and attract them to assets with very positive real yields in pesos.
Thus, if two weeks ago the Secretariat of Finance had to go out to carry out a tender out of calendarvalidating an annual rates of 29% (before the Lefi) to 48% per year (Lecap 15 days), this week it rose to 65% per year. But the “super rates” were not enough to prevent the dollar from winning, given the increasing expectation of devaluation. Meanwhile, banks swell their profits to the rhythm of the speculation game.
The Another leg of the “Platita Plan” was at the same time a gesture to the agricultural employers. With the Retentions reduction To soybeans and derivatives and main items of grains and meat, seeks to scratch the pot of the remnant of liquidation of agricultural exports dollars that could still enter. This Thursday was published in the Official Gazette Decree 526/2025 that will allow to pocket greater profits to large companies in the field and exporters.
A Transfer between US $ 1,200 and 1,400 million From the State to the pockets of the employers, or the equivalent of 0.19–0.22 % of the annual GDP. The same that would serve to finance half of the increase and the bonus to the retirees that Milei wants to veto next Monday.
Where are the weights that I don’t see?
It seems ridiculous to say that “there are many pesos in circulation” when Most working families feel that money is not enough to reach the end of the month. This Tuesday was injected with almost $ 3 billion because the treasure could not renew 24% of debt maturities in pesos. They beat about $ 11.8 billion and placed around $ 9 billion. That money does not end up promoting the economy due to the effect of “monetary expansion” since investment and consumption do not absorb them.
In other words, the real economy finds a brake with expensive credit and real interest rates, together with the strong tax adjustment. Banks prefer to allocate those dollars to the dollar coverage against the expectation of devaluation, or in yields in pesos.
Repressed monetary issuance: The Government states that it cut with the issuance of pesos, but only hid it under the carpet, withdrawing money in circulation through more public debt and renewing more and more interests. The problem is when the “rollover” (renewing debt maturities) is not able to sustain, and when at the same time that the dollar is appreciated to the point of the ridiculous that spent the summer in Miami, it ended up being more economical than the Argentine Atlantic coast (for whom they could pay it). Caputo plays with fire. In August the treasure faces maturities for $ 38 billion, (4.4% of GDP) and another $ 20 billion in September and $ 18 billion in October.
The Up of the dollar of almost 30% since April It will have its impact on prices, especially the sudden rise of the last week. As the economist Esteban Rafele analyzes, the price lists of wholesalers and supermarkets of between 4% and 9% would be transferred to the prices of wholesale and supermarkets, and will soon impact family budgets. But the parity are crowded and the wages are losing in front of inflation.
Salaries lost up to 32% since Milei assumedbeing the main injured the workers of the National Public Sector (-32%). It is followed by those of the provincial public sector (-6.9%) and those of the registered private sector, which with many heterogeneities average a loss of 1% since November 2023, although during much of 2024, after the devaluation with which Milei and Caputo assumed, they held an adjustment of the purchasing power that did not recover. There are still 24% below 2015 (May 2025 versus October 2015).
Structural contradictions
The growing uncertainty on the path of the dollar, inflation and economic direction is produced by unresolved structural problems: the shortage of dollars, the exchange delay that reduces the commercial surplus, and the current account deficit that accumulates twelve consecutive months.
In just two and a half months the capital escape (external asset formation) reached the equivalent of 77% of the IMF disbursement in April for US $ 12,000 million. The Central Bank fails to accumulate reserves significantly, despite the recent currency purchases through the treasure (the BCRA cannot intervene directly as long as the dollar is inside the exchange bands).
It is likely that the confirmation of the new IMF disbursement for US $ 2,000 million arrives as a new “rescue” to the Government of Milei, and temporarily relieve nervousness in “the markets”, in the countdown to the legislative elections of September (PBA) and October (national). But it is known that it is not a substantive solution to the problems of delay and dependence on the country. To prevent the crisis from being discharged on working families, it is necessary to face the adjustment of Milei, the IMF and the interests of economic power that no government wanted to affect.
Source: www.laizquierdadiario.com
