In a Europe that is increasingly restrictive with immigration and pressure from the extreme right, Spain’s approach clashes with its surroundings. While neighboring countries seek to reduce the arrival of immigrants, the number of foreign workers on Spanish soil exceeds record numbers. Faced with this scenario, the Government, through the National Office of Foresight and Strategy (ONPE) of La Moncloa, commissioned a report to answer a question: What would Spain be like in the next 50 years if immigrant inflows continue at the current rate? What would happen if, on the contrary, a restrictive policy was applied and arrivals were reduced by 30%?
The response, captured in a report from the ONPE that elDiario.es has accessed, describes an aging and shrunken country, with 25% fewer inhabitants compared to another scenario in which immigrant arrivals remained at the current rate. A country with nine million fewer workers, which could lead to a loss of wealth, up to “22% of GDP”, and a strong blow to sectors such as agriculture, care and hospitality. A country in which, to maintain the current pension system, each contributor would have to contribute around 2,000 euros more each year than if the current migratory flow were maintained, according to the conclusions of the first draft of the study.
This is the portrait of one of the scenarios proposed by the study ‘Spain facing the migration challenge’, with which the National Foresight and Strategy Office analyzes how Spain would change until 2075 depending on the different levels of immigration. It is not a prediction, its authors warn, but rather a scenario exercise: comparing what happens if current flows are maintained or if, on the contrary, they are steadily reduced by 30%. What would be, therefore, the consequences of following the hard line on immigration promoted by other European States.
In Spain, for more than a decade, the population has only grown thanks to the arrival of people from abroad. In this context, the demographic impact forms the first ranking of the effects of the reduction in immigration proposed by the ONPE. In a scenario with migratory flows similar to the current ones, the population would be around 55 million people in 2075, compared to 49 million today. However, if entries fell by 30%, Spain would be inhabited by a quarter, remaining at 40 million inhabitants, according to its projections.
Impact on the labor market
As a direct consequence, the number of workers would decrease. According to the document, in the event of a hypothetical tightening of immigration policies, Spain would have nine million fewer people of working age than if arrivals were maintained. Migratory flows will therefore determine future economic growth: ONPE projections suggest that the Gross Domestic Product could fall by 14% in 2055 and 22% in 2075 compared to the scenario with sustained immigration. This effect would be equivalent to losing “about 18,000 euros less per inhabitant per year,” the document points out.
The report gives as an example the effect that the drop in entries could have in the sectors that currently concentrate the greatest number of foreigners: agriculture, hospitality and care. In the countryside, the lack of workers could cause the abandonment of “more than 220,000 farms in 2075”, almost three out of every ten currently. In the hospitality industry, up to 90,000 bars and restaurants could disappear, close to half of the total, according to their estimates. And in care, the projected imbalance would affect an increasingly aging population: while dependent citizens would increase by nearly 60%, the supply of care workers could fall by 28%, with which ONPE estimates that more than 45,000 dependent people could be left without sufficient care.
The deterioration would also affect public health, one of the systems most sensitive to aging. With less immigration, the report warns, healthcare capacity would be strained in two ways: more patients and fewer professionals. “Migration has contributed to filling out staff in primary care, emergencies, rural areas and certain hospitals,” the authors recall. In the low immigration scenario, Spain could lose around 63,000 specialist doctors and each doctor would have to care for 4% more patients in 2075, the study states.
More taxes
The less active population and more retired people, public accounts would also be affected. In 2075, each worker would have to contribute about 2,000 euros more per year to support the pension system in a scenario of low immigration. Pension spending would increase by up to an additional 1.2% of GDP and revenue collection would fall, forcing taxes to be raised or benefits to be cut. Immigration, the report concludes, “does not solve the problem by itself, but acts as one of the main shock absorbers of aging.”
The report introduces a nuance to the fiscal debate: with less immigration, some public expenditures could be reduced (for example, on education or other services linked to a younger population), but it would be insufficient. “The reduction in spending associated with a smaller population does not compensate for the drop in income,” the authors warn. In their calculations, although the State would spend somewhat less on certain items, the loss of the active population would cause a much greater drop in collection from contributions and taxes. That is to say, the key is not so much in the volume of spending as in who supports it: with fewer workers and less economic activity, the tax base is reduced and the balance of public accounts becomes more fragile.
Experts recall that immigration “has positive effects beyond the strictly economic sphere” and that it “contributes to social cohesion and the dynamism of society”, in a context in which the arrival of a foreign population is also associated with greater social diversity and a greater capacity for adaptation and innovation.
The methodology of the study is based on a prospective exercise that compares different possible paths: an immigration scenario similar to the current one and, on the contrary, another in which a hypothetical tightening of immigration policies would reduce arrivals by 30% for decades. To do this, the authors build several demographic and economic models until 2075 based on different levels of immigration, combining data from the INE, population projections and variables such as employment, productivity or public spending. From there, they simulate how key indicators (such as GDP, pensions or healthcare) would evolve in each scenario. “It is not about anticipating what will happen, but rather about understanding the consequences of different decisions,” the document emphasizes. The objective, ONPE sources maintain, was to find a tool to measure the impact that migration policies would have in Spain in the coming decades.
Sources from the Ministry of Migration consider that the conclusions of the report reinforce the approach of the Government’s migration policy in the face of generalized hardening in Europe. “Spain is leading a different model from that of many countries, but it does so based on scientific evidence, demographic, economic and social data, and a determined defense of human rights,” they maintain from the department directed by Elma Saiz.
“The report confirms that without migration, it would not explain why Spain has been growing for seven years above the European average, that we have more people working than ever and that we have registered the lowest unemployment rate in 17 years,” say sources from the Ministry, who consider that the study “complements the reasons” given to carry out the next extraordinary regularization of immigrants, whose draft awaits the green light from the Council of State and its next approval in the Council of Ministers.
Source: www.eldiario.es
