Very optimistic prediction on the price of Bitcoin: 300,000 USD

A couple of days ago Robert Kiyosaki published a decidedly very optimistic prediction on the price of Bitcoin: 300,000 USD by the end of 2024.

According to Kiyosaki, procrastinating on BTC purchases at this time would be a big mistake, so much so that he defines it as “important” to start buying even just 500 dollars in BTC.

Kiyosaki’s predictions

Robert Kiyosaki is the famous author of the best-seller “Rich Dad, Poor Dad”.

Although he is now 76 years old, for some time he has become a great supporter of Bitcoin, because he claims that the current economic-financial system is sick.

In the past he has already made several predictions on the price of Bitcoin, almost always very optimistic.

For example, in May 2022, in the midst of the bear market, he claimed that the bottom would be at $17,000, and in fact he didn’t get far. The bottom of that bear market was reached in November of the same year at around $15,500, or just below the threshold indicated by Kiyosaki.

In February of the following year, after rebounding to $24,000, he stated that the price of Bitcoin would rise to $500,000 by 2025.

The current forecast is in line with that of February last year, although both remain very optimistic to date.

In October last year, after the current bullrun began, he stated that the price of Bitcoin was headed towards USD 135,000, and less than a month ago he reiterated that he believed USD 100,000 could be reached by June.

Bitcoin price prediction at 300,000 USD

Yesterday’s forecast is therefore more optimistic than the one made last October, but in line with both that of February 2024 and that of February 2023.

That is, it seems that during the ongoing bull run Kiyosaki went from believing that a rise in the price of Bitcoin in 2024 up to 135,000 USD was possible to even considering a rise up to 300,000 USD possible.

All of this remains in line with his prediction of Bitcoin at USD 500,000 next year.

Among other things, this last figure is also the one that indicates PlanB’s famous Stock-to-Flow, which however in 2021 clearly missed the prediction of Bitcoin at 100,000 USD.

However, it should be underlined that in the meantime many things have changed, and above all spot Bitcoin ETFs have arrived on US stock exchanges.

Kiyosaki himself had never made a prediction of USD 500,000 by 2025 before the news of the probable approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC came out, published at the end of August 2023 after Grayscale’s victory in court.

Furthermore, until relatively recently, very few people imagined that the price of Bitcoin could record a new all-time high before the halving.

So until now reality has proven to be more optimistic than predictions, if you take the average values, so Kiyosaki’s very optimistic prediction may not even be entirely wrong.

The medium/long-term trend

To tell the truth, the fact that the bottom of the last bear market was just above $15,000 did not surprise many. Not only did Kiyosaki come close, but other analysts did too. For example, many claimed that it could have been around $13,000.

At the time, however, the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs was not on the horizon, so the situation was relatively more normal, and perhaps a little more predictable.

The turning point came in 2023, not only thanks to the return above $30,000 in a relatively short time, but above all thanks to the news at the end of August, when a court effectively ordered the SEC to approve spot Bitcoin ETFs.

A lot has changed since then, so much so that in October a bullrun was triggered, still ongoing, almost totally unexpected.

If things had gone as in the previous two cycles, the price of BTC should have reached the halving at around 35,000 USD, i.e. a figure not much higher than that of October 2023, when it rose back to 30,000 USD.

Without ETFs the scenario would probably have been this, or something similar.

Instead, a few days ago, or about a month and a half before the halving, the price briefly rose above USD 69,000, or almost double the expected $35,000.

The current trend is therefore completely anomalous, so even optimistic forecasts like those of Kiyosaki at this moment seem to have some probability of being correct.