US consumer confidence reaches lower level since 2022 after Trump’s trade war

Consumer confidence in the United States fell in March 2025, reaching the lowest level since November 2022. Data were released on Friday, 14, by the University of Michigan, according to information from the ABC News portal.

The index, which reflects the perception of consumers about the economic situation, presented retraction for the third consecutive month. The fall exceeded analyst projections, signaling the expansion of uncertainties in various segments of the economy.

According to the survey, the retreat in the index is associated with factors such as the trade war promoted by the administration of former President Donald Trump and the growing possibility of recession. The research indicated deterioration of expectations in relation to personal finances, the labor market, inflation and the performance of the stock market.

Negative perception was observed among voters of different political orientations. “Both Democratic and Republican voters expressed a more pessimistic view, although the reduction was more pronounced among the Democrats, indicating a scenario of widespread concern,” the report points out.

The research also showed that inflationary expectations among consumers have risen. The projection for the inflation rate over a year rose to 4.9%, higher than the level recorded in February. According to the survey, the elevation is related to the impact of Trump government’s commercial tariffs on countries such as China and members of the European Union.

Tariffs have resulted in increased consumer prices, which, according to economists, raises the risk of stagflation – a situation characterized by the combination of high inflation with low economic growth.

The S&P 500 index, one of the main indicators of the North American stock market, fell more than 10% on Thursday (13), compared to the peak recorded in the previous month. The movement has a correction in the market, the first since October 2023. Despite a partial recovery observed on Friday, analysts point out that instability should persist in the short term.

The current scenario has expanded concerns about the effects of trade policies and their repercussions on the internal economy. Economists claim that maintaining protectionist measures can cause retaliation of business partners, affecting the performance of US exports and deepening economic slowdown.

The Federal Reserve, the Central Bank of the United States, also follows the developments. The increase in inflation expectations may lead the monetary authority to review its interest policy. An increase in rates in a weakened economic activity may intensify the effects of slowdown in productive sectors.

Analysts consulted by financial institutions evaluate that recent indicators should reverberate in the upcoming economic policy decisions, both in the fiscal and monetary scope. The reduction in consumer confidence is considered a relevant sign that the impacts of trade policy and financial instability are being absorbed by the population.

The University of Michigan reported that the consumer’s feeling of feeling began to reflect the perception of risk associated with the evolution of commercial conflicts. The report points out that the perspective of consumers for the performance of the economy in the medium term is trend for deterioration.

Michigan University research is one of the main thermometers of domestic economic activity and is often monitored by investors, public policy formulators and financial institutions. The survey is conducted monthly with a representative sample of the adult population of the United States, measuring consumer evaluation about their current conditions and future expectations.

The March result reinforces the framework of uncertainty about the trajectory of the US economy in the coming months. With high inflation, volatile stock market and increased commercial tensions, the economic environment has signs of pressure on consumption, one of the main engines of growth in the United States.

The next promotion of the survey is scheduled for April and may indicate whether the trend of falling consumer confidence will be maintained.