Trump’s impact on world trade will echo for decades

Trump intensifies failed policies from his first term, putting the US at risk of further economic and trade setbacks

After I moved to Hong Kong in the early 1980s, my father only visited me a few times. I’m not being cruel when I say he was a prejudiced xenophobe to the core. He didn’t speak a word of any language except English, and when he needed to talk to Hong Kongers, he spoke in English. If they couldn’t understand, he had a single universal solution: speak louder.

That was one of my singular memories as I pondered the implications of Donald Trump’s return to the Oval Office next month, while rereading articles I wrote in 2016 about the global trade and economic implications of a Trump presidency.

Trump’s messages are completely unchanged: bring manufacturing back to the United States, reduce the trade deficit, cut China short, and raise revenue from tariffs.

To the extent that these ambitions failed to produce results during his first administration, he simply repeated them this time, only louder.

Rather than recognizing that this set of priorities was unattainable or would do more harm than good to the U.S. economy, he redoubled his efforts. Instead of imposing 10-25% tariffs on a small proportion of imports, he proposed during his campaign tariffs of 10-20% on all imported goods and 60% on imports from China.

In late November, he threatened 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada — two of the U.S.’s closest allies and biggest trading partners — if they don’t curb undocumented migrants and fentanyl.

Blaming the failures of his first administration on everyone except himself, he redoubled emphasis on the need for a loyal and compliant staff and used a megaphone to warn his business partners around the world that failure to meet his demands will do so at their own expense. and risk.

A series of announcements made in the days following the US election results have been surprisingly successful in diverting attention from every other issue.