Trump will win elections according to prediction markets: reliable?

The Bitcoin (BTC) price has been doing very well lately. One reason for this appears to be Donald Trump’s increasing chances in the upcoming elections in the United States.

On prediction markets, the Republican now has a wide lead over his direct opponent Kamala Harris, with crypto prediction platform Polymarket in particular.

However, according to traditional polls, it is still a neck-and-neck race in which anything still seems possible. This raises the question of whether prediction markets may be manipulated.

Kalshi founder comes up with data

The stark contrast has made many doubt whether the results of the prediction markets, which have become increasingly popular in recent years, are reliable. Criticism is mainly about possible manipulation by a few big players in order to influence the outcomes and earn more money themselves.

Tarek Mansour, the founder of the Kalshi prediction market, contradicted these concerns yesterday in a post on social media platform X. He showed that on his platform the median bet size is actually higher for Harris than for Trump. This means that Trump’s chances are more supported by the masses than is the case with Harris.

”There are simply more traders betting on Trump than on Kamala. About 60% of traders choose Trump, while 40% choose Kamala,” Mansou wrote.

He also debunked the claim that opportunities are being manipulated by foreigners, saying that Kalshi operates exclusively in the US. ”The opportunities for Kalshi come exclusively from Americans. No foreign influence,” Mansou said.

Trump’s Chances on Polymarket Reach Record Highs

Trump has a 57% chance of entering the White House according to Kalshi. According to Polymarket, the largest prediction market in the crypto world, the chance of a Trump victory is even greater at 60.7%. On Friday this even reached a peak of 62.9%. Since Harris took over from Joe Biden in the election campaign, the chances have not been this high.

Earlier this month you could read in the crypto news that Elon Musk argued that prediction markets such as Polymarket are a lot more accurate than traditional polls ”because there is actually money at stake”.

In any case, the crypto country hopes that this is the case, and that Trump will walk away with the profits in just over two weeks. On paper, he is the most favorable candidate for the American crypto industry. He has captured the hearts of investors with great promises. For example, he wants to add the seized bitcoins to the state treasury and dismiss the controversial SEC chairman Gary Gensler.