“He’s gone. He’s finished. You’re a loser, man. You’re losing at everything, and you’re going to lose even more because you, my friend, are a loser,” commented James Carville during a Politicon podcast. The American political strategist, alongside journalist Al Hunt, leaves no doubt about his assessment of the president: Trump is defeated, everywhere, and recent electoral evidence confirms this analysis.
The results of special elections in the United States show a clear pattern: Democrats win significant victories in traditionally Republican territories. In December 2025, Democrat Eileen Higgins won the election for mayor of Miami by a margin of 19 percentage points, defeating the candidate supported by Donald Trump. The victory marks the first time in 28 years that a Democrat has taken office as mayor of the city. In Georgia, Democrat Eric Gisler won a State House seat (District 121) that was considered safe for Republicans. In November, gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey also resulted in Democratic victories, with Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill winning New Jersey.
Trump’s main problem, according to Carville, is his economic message that is completely disconnected from reality. While millions of Americans face inflation, rising costs of living and financial difficulties, Trump insists that the economy is “fantastic” and has earned an “A+” grade. For Carville, this is “a politically stupid message.” He states that “he is trying to argue that you are not feeling what you are feeling.” Voters feel the economic reality in their wallets and in their daily lives.
“The evidence is everywhere,” says Carville. The data confirm this analysis. Recent polls show that Trump’s approval has dropped significantly. In November 2025, his approval reached 38%, the lowest level of his second term, according to Reuters/Ipsos. More recently, in December, his approval ranged between 36% and 41%, depending on the survey. Particularly worrying for the president is the fact that his approval rating has turned negative in states he won in 2024, such as Ohio and Iowa.
The shift in the Latino vote is particularly significant. Trump had made historic gains with Latino voters in 2024, but that advantage is quickly disappearing. Pew Research Center polls from November 2025 show that a majority of Latinos disapprove of Trump, especially his policies on the economy and immigration. In the New Jersey gubernatorial election, Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill won the Latino vote by a 2-to-1 margin. While 81% of Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024 still approve of him, that number is down from 93% at the start of his term.
For the 2026 midterm elections, projections indicate a challenging scenario for Republicans. A Marist College poll showed that Democrats are favored in the 2026 elections. The Cook Political Report and other analyzes suggest that Democrats have significant opportunities to gain seats in the House of Representatives, potentially reversing Republican control.
Carville notes that this dynamic is unprecedented. He mentions that Trump is losing everywhere: in Florida, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Virginia, Mississippi and Georgia. This geographic range of rejection suggests that this is not an isolated issue in certain regions, but a national movement against the president.
Carville concludes that Trump is no longer a “political wizard.” The scenario has fundamentally changed. “The signs are everywhere,” says Carville. Hispanic voters are returning to Democrats. Young people continue to mobilize against Trump. Independents and moderates move away. Even Republicans are beginning to question their political future.
“There is no going back,” concludes Carville. “Trump is losing everywhere.”
Source: https://www.ocafezinho.com/2025/12/11/trump-ja-era-preve-um-dos-principais-analistas-politicos-dos-eua/
