Trade war? Dutch exports to the US is flourishing

While policymakers warn of rising tensions and companies are bracing new import duties, the trade figures paint a surprisingly different picture.

Instead of a dip in the transatlantic trade relationship, the data shows a remarkable resilience. The question is: how can Dutch export grow to the United States in the midst of an imminent rate war? Ar

Dutch export to US surprised with strong growth

Provisional figures from the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) show that the export value of Dutch goods to the United States in the first half of 2025 increased by 10.5 percent compared to the same period last year. Imports from the US also increased, although growth there was limited to 1.0 percent.

This export growth was mainly driven by the re -export of goods, which increased by no less than 24.6 percent. Products from Dutch -made grew more modest, with a plus of 4.5 percent. Especially in February, March and April, the increase was considerable, with peaks of almost 30 percent in March.

The trading dynamics show that there are anticipation behavior: companies in both the US and the EU imported earlier and more to be ahead of announced import duties. That explains why the American import was considerably higher in the first quarter, while a stabilization became visible in the second quarter.

Machines and pharmacy float export growth

The growing export mainly came from sectors such as machines, transport equipment and pharmaceutical products. Medical equipment, specialized machines and telecom products such as telephones and routers also contributed. On the other hand, the export of mineral fuels fell back again, partly due to price falls on the world market.

The Netherlands showed a striking pattern on the import side. While the import of raw oil and other mineral fuels decreased, the import of chemical products, pharmaceutical goods and foods rose.

EU pays a high price for Handelsrust

The European Union and the United States reached a historic trade agreement at the end of August. It was agreed that the input rates will be maximized at 15 percent. This means that the imminent super levies, up to 250 percent on European medicines, are off the table.

In exchange for lower rates, Brussels undertakes to purchase hundreds of billions in American oil, gas, nuclear energy and artificial intelligence (AI) chips until 2028, while European companies also invest billions in strategic sectors in the US.

The agreement is presented as a diplomatic victory for President Donaldn Trump, while the EU has to take billions to prevent a trade war and at the same time promises more cooperation on defense, raw materials and labor rights.