Top analyst warns: Bitcoin price could crash to $40,000

Bitcoin (BTC) is under pressure after macro analyst Luke Gromen warns that the Bitcoin price could fall back towards $40,000 in 2026. According to him, Bitcoin is weakening due to poor macro conditions, technical signals and increasing concerns about quantum risk.

The reasons behind Gromen’s warning about BTC

Gromen says in a recent interview that Bitcoin has lagged behind gold in recent months, while both should benefit from inflation and weakening currencies. He also emphasizes that Bitcoin has lost several important technical levels, including several daily moving averages. According to him, this points to a weakening market image.

He also sees that the discussion about quantum computing is making some investors nervous, even though practical risks still seem far away for the time being.

Yet Gromen sticks to his broader vision: according to him, scarce assets such as gold and Bitcoin will continue to benefit from the increasing debt problem in the long term. However, he believes that Bitcoin is currently functioning less well within the so-called debasement trade.

Bitcoin analysts respond critically

There is a lot of criticism of his analysis within the Bitcoin community. Several onchain researchers argue that Gromen is guided too much by narratives on social media. According to them, the underlying data does not show any structural deterioration.

Cryptographers also emphasize that an actual quantum attack is not realistic for the time being.

Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs appear to be cautiously regaining their footing after strong outflows in November. This inflow indicates that part of the market still has confidence in the long term of BTC.

Is Bitcoin Really Going to $40,000 by 2026?

For the time being, Gromen seems to mainly issue a tactical warning. He remains positive about Bitcoin in the long term, but thinks the currency will remain vulnerable in the coming period as long as macroeconomic uncertainty persists.

The price is currently hovering around $90,000. Whether BTC really moves towards $40,000 depends on new economic news and how investors react to the changing market narratives.