The US presidential race remains tight, according to polls released two days before Kamala Harris and Donald Trump take part in their first – and possibly only – televised debate.
According to the latest poll, Trump continues to enjoy the support of roughly half of voters, despite being the first former president to have a criminal conviction and having played a crucial role in the unprecedented attempt to overturn the result of the 2020 election, in which he was defeated by Joe Biden.
Harris, who entered the race only after Biden resigned in July, has quickly gone from a relatively lackluster vice president to a competitive contender. However, polls suggest she has yet to pull off a major upset, leaving the race in a dead heat.
A poll conducted by the New York Times in conjunction with Siena College indicated that Trump, at 78 years old, leads Harris nationally by a narrow margin of 48% to 47%, a difference that is within the poll’s margin of error.
In the United States, presidential elections are decided by the sum of the results in each state, rather than an overall popular vote, meaning that swing states, those without a clear political leaning, often determine the ultimate winner of the race.
The same poll found Harris, 59, is slightly ahead in three crucial states — Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — while tied with Trump in four other swing states: Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.
Another poll, conducted by CBS News/YouGov, found Harris with a lead of just one percentage point in Michigan and Wisconsin, and technically tied with Trump in Pennsylvania.
The election has been chaotic, with Biden, 81, dropping out of the race over concerns about his age, Trump narrowly escaping an assassination attempt at one of his rallies, and a growing fear that Trump, if he loses again, will refuse to concede, as he did in 2020.
Despite this chaos, the most recent polls confirm that both Harris and Trump continue to maintain a considerably stable base of support, with the electorate roughly split down the middle.
One factor that could significantly alter the outlook is the ABC News debate scheduled for next Tuesday. This debate, the only one scheduled between the two candidates, represents a critical opportunity for both to win over undecided voters.
Trump, known for his aggressive style, will be under pressure to tone down his behavior, especially when debating Harris, who is seeking to become the first woman and first person of mixed descent to become president of the United States. Harris, on the other hand, will need to use the exposure provided by the debate to connect more effectively with voters, something she failed to do significantly during her term as vice president and for which she had little time in her fast-paced campaign.
With Trump becoming the oldest presidential candidate in US history, he has taken an apocalyptic tone in his speeches, warning of the country’s irreversible decline if he is not reelected. In contrast, Harris has tried to convey a message of hope and progress, although she has been criticized by some for basing her campaign on vague optimism and for not offering concrete proposals.
Pressed by that criticism, Harris finally responded on Sunday, when her team released a page detailing her main proposals, addressing issues ranging from labor rights to the cost of living and public health.
Harris will also have to deal with Trump’s provocative style, which involves making false statements on virtually any topic and using insults to destabilize his opponents. In the previous debate against Biden, Trump used this tactic frequently, making it difficult for his opponent to respond.
Trump has already launched a series of racist and sexist attacks against Harris, deliberately mispronouncing her name during campaign speeches and calling her “crazy” and a “Marxist.”
Pete Buttigieg, current Secretary of Transportation and a Harris supporter, commented in an interview with CNN that it will take “almost superhuman focus and discipline” to deal with Trump in a debate.
After the debate, Harris’ campaign plans to ramp up its activities in key states, starting with North Carolina and then Pennsylvania, two states crucial to determining the winner of the election.
Meanwhile, Trump continues to focus on his largely white, working-class voter base. At a recent rally in Wisconsin, he gave a somber speech, claiming to be fighting a “rogue regime” and accusing Democrats of “importing murderers, child predators and serial rapists from all over the planet.”
On his social network, Truth Social, Trump warned that, if he returns to the White House, he will impose “long prison sentences” on those who, according to him, are conspiring to “rig” the November elections.
With information from AFP
Source: https://www.ocafezinho.com/2024/09/09/empate-nas-pesquisas-aumenta-a-tensao-a-dias-do-debate-entre-harris-e-trump/
