This is what Kalshi users predict about the Bitcoin price

Expectations about the future of Bitcoin (BTC) vary widely among investors. While optimists hope for a new rise, others expect further declines. According to users of the American forecasting platform Kalshi, the downward scenario currently seems to be gaining the upper hand.

Traders expect possible decline towards $40,000

Traders on Kalshi predict that the Bitcoin price could fall to the level of $40,000 by 2026. There is a lot going on: the trading volume on the platform currently stands at almost 1 million dollars.

The data shows that 31 percent of users expect a bottom around $40,000. At a current price of approximately $68,000, this represents a decline of approximately 41 percent. In addition, 57 percent of users estimate the chance that Bitcoin will reach $50,000 as significant. Many traders are therefore seriously considering further weakness.

In October, BTC reached an all-time high of over $126,000. Shortly afterwards, the largest liquidation day in the history of the crypto market followed, with 19 billion dollars evaporating. Since then, the price has been moving in a downward trend and BTC even briefly dipped below $60,000 last week.

Does Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remain valid?

Kalshi users’ expectations show that many still have confidence in BTC’s four-year cycle. According to that theory, the digital currency moves in four-year phases, with strong bull markets, followed by corrections and prolonged bear markets, after which a new upward phase begins.

Analyst Titan of Crypto points to previous cycles. In previous bear markets, the bottom was typically reached 12 months after the bull market peak. That pattern now appears to be repeating itself again. If that scenario holds true, the next low could occur around October 2026.

Not everyone agrees on the exact time of the bottom. Dutch analyst Jelle, for example, expects a low point around June this year. According to his analysis, the price could fall to around $52,000, a scenario that largely matches how many Kalshi users assess the situation.