Finally, Tuesday, November 5, arrived, the day of the presidential elections in the United States and one of the most anticipated and close-fought elections in recent decades. Until Sunday Some 77 million people have already voted early. It is about half of the total number of people who voted in the last 2020 elections. On that occasion, when Trump and Biden faced each other, 154.6 million Americans voted.
For the elections this Tuesday the 5th 244 million are eligible to votebut voting is not mandatory and has various restrictions, so the final number is much smaller and makes a large part of the candidates’ campaign to seek the incentive for the greatest number of people to register and finally go to vote. the ballot boxes.
This significant number of early votes (many of them by mail), which are counted at the endand the fact that the elections are defined in seven competitive states where it is still not certain who will win can cause final results to be delayed by several hours, even days.
According to the average of the last national surveys collected by the newspaper New York Timesthe Democratic candidate Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by just one point. However, other polls indicate a virtual tie or a minimal advantage for Trump. Although in all cases is within the margin of error.
Anyway The relevant data to know who will win the election is who obtains the majority in the Electoral College. In the United States the vote president It is not direct but is elected by an Electoral College composed of a total of 538 members. Each State contributes a number of delegates to the electoral college and in the majority (with the exception of Maine and Nebraska) whoever wins the state, even by one vote, takes all the delegates to the electoral college that that district contributes. Therefore The one who wins the presidency is the one who adds half plus one of the 538 voters, that is, who reaches the “magic number” of 270 voters in the Electoral College.
Most states are already defined for Harris or Trump by margins that would be irreversible, so they are already counted as “safe states” for one or the other and The “final battle” will be registered in only seven states called “swing states” or “hinge states”where the difference between the two candidates is within the margin of error and a winner cannot be defined in advance. To this Tuesday, according to the data of the New York Timesthe safe delegates (or almost safe with some exceptions) for each candidate were as follows: 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump.
That is to say that The delegates corresponding to the seven “swing states” remain to be distributed that in total They total 93 delegates: Wisconsin 10, Michigan 15, Pennsylvania 19, North Carolina 16; Nevada 6, Georgia 16 and Arizona with 11.
These are the states in which the election will be defined, where most of the campaign events were concentrated (especially in Pennsylvania, which awards 19 delegates) and where the polls are very close.
As you can see in the chart below, the latest polls in Pennsylvania (Pa) gives a tied result, in North Carolina (NC) and Nevada (Nev) Trump leads by less than one point, in Georgia (Ga) Trump leads by more than one point and in Arizona (Ariz) he does so by more than 3 points. Meanwhile, Harris leads in Michigan (Mich) by less than a point and in Wisconsin (Wis) by more than a percentage point.
In this table you can also see that with the exception of North Carolina, which was won by Trump in the last two elections, and Nevada, which was won by Democrats, the rest of the states had been won by Trump in 2016 and then recovered by Biden. for Democrats in 2020.
Additionally In recent days a poll appeared that gives Harris the winner in Iowaa state that was considered solid in favor of Trump, which generated a stir about what could happen on Tuesday night there. We will also have to be attentive to that state which distributes 6 delegates to the Electoral College.
You can read all the articles about the elections in the United States here
Source: www.laizquierdadiario.com
