The US economy grew 4.3% in the third quarter

The United States economy grew at a robust annualized rate of 4.3% in the third quarter of 2025, far exceeding market expectations of 3.2%. This was the strongest pace of expansion recorded since the third quarter of 2023, according to official data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Performance was driven primarily by consumer vigor, with significant spending on healthcare services and IT equipment. Increases in federal defense spending and exports also contributed, while business investment slowed and imports fell. Net trade was a significant positive factor, adding 1.6 percentage points to the general rate, in a scenario of strong exports and falling imports.

Despite the strong result, a future indicator pointed to possible challenges. Separate data from the Conference Board showed that consumer confidence in December fell to its second lowest level in five years. Analysts interviewed by **Financial Times** signaled caution. Thomas Simons of Jefferies stated that “the bar has been set extremely high for continued growth in the fourth quarter,” while Oliver Allen of Pantheon Macroeconomics commented that the large net trade boost, influenced in part by tariffs and limited trade retaliation, is unlikely to be sustainable.

The reaction of financial markets was moderate. Treasury bond yields rose slightly as investors reduced bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve for early 2026. Experts, such as Andy Brenner of NatAlliance Securities, assessed that the data should not change the central bank’s cautious stance.

The outlook for the last quarter of the year is bleaker. Growth is expected to be pressured by the already observed slowdown in consumer spending, the residual effects of the recent government shutdown – which delayed the release of this data – and inventory dynamics. Royal Bank of Canada’s Mike Reid highlighted that he is paying attention to these factors, especially the growing impact of tariffs. Data for the fourth quarter, also affected by the delay, will only be released in 2026.