The OECD has raised the economic growth forecast in 2025 of Spain three tenths, from 2.3% projected in December to current 2.6%, without still assuming tariffs between the United States and the European Union (EU).
The international organization does incorporate into its projections the commercial war escalated by the first world power with China, Canada and Mexico, and cuts its expectation of progress of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in this year two tenths, to 2.2%.
Meanwhile, the growth expectation in 2025 of the ‘Giant’ Asian advances one tenth from December, to 4.8%. The Canada is reduced 1.3 points, to 0.7%. And that of Mexico is the one that takes the worst blow, of 2.5 points, until entering a recession that will entail a contraction of its GDP of 1.3%.
“The projections assume that the tariff increases announced between China and the United States and the 25% general tariff on US imports of steel and aluminum are maintained,” explains the OECD, in the report published on Monday. “In addition, it is assumed that tariff types on all imports of goods in Canada and Mexico to the United States increase another 25 percentage points (with the exception of the lowest tariffs on potassase and energy products). Equivalent retaliation tariffs by Canada and Mexico are also assumed about imports from merchandise from the United States. In the projections, no additional tariffs are incorporated, ”he continues.
With these cases, economic forecasts are totally exposed to the uncertainty that has taken over world trade and geopolitics since Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
“European economies will experience less direct economic effects of tariff measures incorporated in reference projections, but it is likely that the increase in geopolitical and political uncertainty continues to stop growth,” adds the OECD. Organization economists estimate that eurozone growth will be 1% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026. Germany suffers a cut of its forecasts for this year of three tenths, 0.4%. France, one tenth, 0.8%.
“Important risks”
“A greater fragmentation of the world economy is a key concern,” laments the OECD in its report. “A larger and wider increase in commercial barriers would affect growth worldwide and increase inflation,” he says.
In this scenario, “an inflation superior to that expected would cause a more restrictive monetary policy and could lead to a disturbing reevaluation of financial markets,” he warns. Finally, “a higher public spending in defense could also support short -term growth, but could increase long -term tax pressures.”
Source: www.eldiario.es
