The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised the economic growth of Spain from 2.3% to 2.5% in 2025 even assuming the tariffs of 20% of the United States to the European Union as a whole (EU). With this projection, our country will lead the main economies of the Eurozone and the world again, as has been happening since 2021.
The IMF takes as a reference the stage of April 8, just before the American administration suspended for 90 days the commercial reprisals – “reciprocal” anranceles, according to their rhetoric – all countries of the world, leaving them in 10% in general, except China, as clarified in the report of the multilateral institution about our economy published this Thursday.
With this premise, of total commercial war, IMF economists improve two tenths the forecast of progress of the GDP of Spain “for the limited direct and indirect commercial exposition” to the first world power. “This improvement in perspective occurs despite the complex international context and is based on a dynamic foreign sector and a robust labor market,” says the Ministry of Economy.
“It is projected that the growth remains solid in the short term and then gradually slows down,” says the IMF report. ” It is expected that the annualized growth rate of more than 3% observed since mid -2023 gradually decreased by normalizing the increases in the population of working and export age, which will reduce the growth of GDP from 2.5% by 2025 to 1.8% in 2026 ”, continues.
“This improvement in growth forecast reflects the good base of the Spanish economy growth model. Our economy continues along the path of modernization and transformation, consolidating itself as the growth engine of the euro zone,” Minister Carlos Corps reacted, who this Thursday has regretted that “the change of paradigm in international trade is to stay.”
As the president of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, Carlos Corps considers that the truce in the commercial war is an opportunity to negotiate. In his opinion, we must protect the commercial relationship “with our largest commercial partner [del conjunto de la UE]”, Which is the United States.
“From then on, demographic aging would maintain growth [de España] Near its medium -term potential of around 1.7%, ”adds the International Monetary Fund.
Increase in real wages and more investment of companies
“On the base stage of the IMF technical staff [hasta el 8 de abril, con aranceles del 20% para la mayoría de importaciones europeas de Estados Unidos, y del 25% para el automóvil o el acero] the adverse impact of the high uncertainty about commercial policies and tariffs announced by the US government earlier this month will be seen, ”says the report.
“It is projected that the growth of consumption remains solid, with continuous increases of real wages and a gradual decrease in household savings rates, which will compensate for the slowest increase in employment,” he says. “The investment should rebound thanks to the decrease in interest rates, the progress in the execution of the funds ‘Next Generation EU’ (NGEU) and the increase in housing construction to meet the accumulated demand,” considers the IMF.
“It is projected that, as growth slows down, the unemployment rate remains stable around 11% in the medium term. It is expected that both general and underlying inflation continue to decrease and that by the end of 2025 they are located near the level set as a goal by the European Central Bank (ECB) [el 2%]based on a gradual moderation of nominal wages and the deflation of energy prices, ”he continues.
The housing problem
“The increases in prices and rentals, together with the still high costs of indebtedness, have eroded the affordability of housing,” admits the international body’s report. “In this sense, the package of measures announced by the Government in January is well received in general, although the main objective should continue to increase the offer, in particular by approval of the modifications to the land law, the speed of the bureaucratic procedures to obtain licenses, as well as the expansion of the Social Housing Park,” says the IMF.
On the other hand, “in areas where land scarcity is less acute, access to housing property can be improved through closely focused demand measures, such as the recently introduced program of public guarantees for the purchase of first home aimed at young people,” he continues. Finally, “the rental prices control and abandoning in case of verifying that it reduces the quantity or quality of the regular offer of rentals, or that makes access by the lowest income from homes, must be re -evaluated.
Public finances “continue to improve”
Regarding public finances [déficit presupuestario y deuda]“They continued to improve in 2024 despite the strong growth of public spending, particularly that related to social wages and transfers [pensiones]. If the costs of emergency measures are excluded in response to catastrophic floods of the DANA, the 2024 deficit stood below the 3% goal of GDP set by the authorities, ”highlights the IMF.
Source: www.eldiario.es
