The government ultimately wants to further renew box 3: tax only upon sale

In recent weeks, box 3 has been the talk of the town. The plan to levy taxes on paper profits from 2028 led to much unrest among Dutch investors. But behind the scenes, the new cabinet is already looking further: the ultimate goal is a capital gains tax, where tax is only paid upon sale. And that idea is a lot better with investors.

First new box 3 system in 2028

Nothing will change for the time being. From January 1, 2028, the new box 3 system must first come into effect, in which the actual return is taxed. That law is now before the House of Representatives and must be adopted no later than March 15, 2026 to meet the implementation date.

You could recently read that a majority supports the bill, because further delay would cost the treasury billions of euros per year.

Box 3 concerns assets such as savings, investments and therefore also cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

Until now, the Tax Authorities have used fictitious returns. That system was undermined by the Supreme Court in 2021, because people paid tax on returns they had not achieved.

What will change from 2028?

In the new system, the tax authorities look at what someone really earns. Interest received, dividends and price gains count. That’s easy for savings. In principle, a capital growth tax applies to investments, including crypto. This means that increases in value are also taxed, even if you don’t sell anything.

For example, if Bitcoin rises by 30 percent in a year, you pay tax on that increase. The box 3 rate will remain 36 percent for the time being. The criticism is that people may then be forced to sell part of their investments.

An exception applies to real estate and shares in start-ups and scale-ups. This is only settled upon sale, via capital gains tax. This makes the new system a hybrid model.

Why does the government want to continue?

The government itself calls the new system an intermediate step. The coalition agreement literally states that they want to work towards a capital gain system for all assets. The coalition wants to encourage long-term investments and prevent people from having to pay taxes on profits that only exist on paper.

That choice is politically sensitive. A full capital gains tax costs the state a lot of money in the first few years, because tax revenues come in later. According to estimates, this could rise to around 5 billion euros in five years.

It is still unclear when box 3 will be fully converted to a capital gains tax. The government talks about “further development”, but does not mention the year.