Saxony and Thuringia are two federal states in eastern Germany that are relatively sparsely populated and have limited economic weight within the country. The two territories have fewer than five million eligible voters. To put this into perspective, the population of the western state of North Rhine-Westphalia, with around 18 million inhabitants, exceeds that of the five eastern federal states that belong to the territory of the former German Democratic Republic (GDR).
Despite all this, the regional elections in Saxony and Thuringia on Sunday threaten to cause a political upheaval of such magnitude that it could put the current German coalition government, made up of Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals, in serious trouble.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is fighting to win the elections in both German states. In Saxony, the CDU is aiming to be the leading force, but polls put the AfD at over 30% and very close to the conservatives. In Thuringia, it will most likely be the party with the most votes. The question is whether it will be able to govern, given that the other parties have so far ruled out the possibility of joining forces with the party led by Björn Höcke, the leader of the most radical wing of the AfD, who openly advocates an ethnic nationalism bordering on neo-Nazism. The recent jihadist attack in Solingen is a backdrop to all this, which could further encourage protest votes for the AfD, something that has not been reflected in the polls so far.
The other force that will emerge as the winner of the polls will be the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW): the young party founded last January, named after the former Die Linke MP and former leader of the Marxist-Leninist organisation Communist Platform, will enter both regional parliaments with a double-digit result, according to polls. In Thuringia, BSW is close to 20% and could even be the second most voted party ahead of the Christian Democrats of the CDU.
With a left-wing economic policy and a conservative approach to migration, Wagenknecht has managed to connect with a significant segment of the electorate dissatisfied with the state of affairs and economic prospects. This discontent is particularly visible in eastern Germany, whose electorate has historically tended to use the vote to express its disagreement with, for example, some of the failed aspects of German reunification.
Migration, energy and Ukraine
Three issues have marked the electoral campaign in Saxony and Thuringia: migration policy – a debate fuelled by the various jihadist attacks suffered by Germany in recent times –, energy policy – the end of the arrival of Russian gas has fuelled inflation and hit the industry of both states – and the war in Ukraine.
Both the AfD and Wagenknecht’s party are waving the flag of peace and openly calling for stopping arms shipments to Ukraine, exploring negotiations with the Kremlin and resuming importing Russian gas and oil – messages that resonate strongly in eastern Germany, which has a greater cultural, economic and historical closeness to Russia than the western part of the country.
On these three issues, the three parties in the coalition government in Berlin, led by the Social Democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz, are in a bad position. In Saxony, the Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals are fighting to overcome the 5% threshold for parliamentary representation. In Thuringia, the liberals of the FDP are expected to be excluded, while the SPD and the Greens are expected to be between 4 and 6% of the vote. If election night really goes badly for the parties in the federal government, the Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals could therefore be excluded from the two regional parliaments. In this case, the viability of the so-called “traffic light coalition” would become practically impossible. The early federal elections, scheduled for September next year, would become practically inevitable.
Another party that will be affected by the regional elections is Die Linke. The post-communists, partly the heirs of the single party of the GDR, could be excluded from the Saxon parliament. In Thuringia, the only federal state in Germany whose government is led by a prime minister from Die Linke (Bodo Ramelow), the post-communists could lose more than 15 percentage points compared to the last regional elections in 2019.
These results are particularly harsh for a party that had made eastern Germany its main electoral stronghold. A significant part of Die Linke’s historic electorate is turning towards the far right or towards Wagenknecht’s party.
The consequences
Last Thursday, the three parties in Scholz’s government announced an agreement to tighten the criteria for granting social assistance to asylum seekers and speed up the expulsion of foreigners who have been denied asylum, among other measures that seek to toughen immigration policy during the election period.
They also agreed on a complete ban on carrying knives or other weapons at public events. The Solingen attack was the trigger for the announcement, but no one can ignore the poor results that the polls predict for the Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals in Saxony and Thuringia. AfD and also partly BSW have succeeded in introducing their migration discourse into the agenda of the Scholz government and into public debate. The result of the far right on Sunday will most likely accelerate this dynamic.
Following the elections in Saxony and Thuringia, the parties that remain represented in the two regional parliaments will have a difficult task ahead of them: forming coalition governments. All indications are that none of the parties will be able to govern alone. Given that no party is willing to form a coalition with the far-right AfD, the parliamentary arithmetic will be a hellish one.
In Saxony, polls suggest two scenarios: the continuation of the current three-party coalition between the CDU, the Greens and the Social Democrats – if the latter two manage to stay in parliament – or the formation of an unprecedented coalition between the CDU and Wagenknecht’s party.
In Thuringia, polls suggest that only one option is possible: a coalition between the conservative CDU, Wagenknecht’s coalition and the SPD, which is also unprecedented. The CDU is ruling out the possibility of governing with either the AfD or Die Linke.
In any case, even if the far right remains in opposition, if the AfD wins a third of all seats in Thuringia, its votes will be essential for measures that require a two-thirds majority, such as the calling of new elections, changes to the Saxon constitution or the election of the president of the regional Constitutional Court. In other words, if the far right wins a third of parliamentary representation, the other parties will be forced to collaborate in one way or another with the AfD to avoid institutional deadlock.
At the federal level, the other question is what the Bundesrat – the upper house in which all 16 federal states are represented – will look like after these elections. The entry of Wagenknecht’s party into the two regional parliaments and possibly into the regional governments, in coalition with the CDU, could change the balance of power in a chamber whose support Scholz’s government needs to push through its laws.
Whatever the outcome on Sunday, the elections in Saxony and Thuringia will mark the year ahead for Berlin’s “traffic light coalition” until the next federal election. The rest of the legislative term could prove too long for Scholz’s government.
Source: www.eldiario.es
