On June 9, French President Emmanuel Macron announced the dissolution of the National Assembly (Parliament). With a massive participation of 67.50 percent, the first tendencies give the winner to the extreme right led by Marine Le Pen, National Regroupment (RN), with 33 percent of the votes, in second place the New Popular Front (which brings together Los Ecologistas, La France Insoumise, the French Communist Party, the Socialist Party among others) which would have obtained 28.1 percent, in third place the official alliance, Juntos, which obtains 20.5%.
The second round of voting will take place on 6 and 7 July, with the candidates with the most votes deciding the formation of the new parliament. The turnout in this first round will be between 67.5% and 69.7%, which would make it the highest since the 1981 legislative elections (70.86%).
According to Ipsos Talan estimates, the RN would obtain between 230 and 280 seats in the second round next Sunday if the current results are maintained. The NP would obtain between 125 and 165 seats, the presidential alliance between 70 and 100 and the right. To obtain an absolute majority in the National Assembly, 289 seats are needed.
Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right RN, called for an “absolute majority” in the second round that would leave French President Emmanuel Macron no choice but to appoint Jordan Bardella as prime minister.
“There is nothing more normal than political alternation. For this we need an absolute majority,” added Le Pen. But then she said that “Nothing is guaranteed in advance. The second round will be decisive in preventing the country from falling into the hands of the New Popular Front” seeking to polarize the election and win voters who supported the government.
For his part, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, called for “a clearly democratic and republican broad union” against the extreme right in the second round of the legislative elections, after his candidates will come third in many cases.
The leader of La France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, said that in order to avoid an absolute majority for the far right and its allies, the NFP will withdraw its candidates who come third in the run-off, even if this benefits the government candidates.
Early estimates leave open several political scenarios. If the far right consolidates an absolute majority in parliament in the second round, it can elect the Prime Minister, who in turn elects his ministers. This is known as “cohabitation” (i.e. a president of one political persuasion and a prime minister and cabinet of another). The last cohabitation occurred in 1997 when the centre-right president Jacques Chirac failed to obtain a majority after dissolving parliament and ended up co-governing with Prime Minister Lionel Jospin of the centre-left Socialist Party.
Whatever the result of the second round on July 7, the situation looks very unstable, with explosive international coordinates. The construction of an independent working-class and popular policy that defends the interests of the workers and the oppressed from below is presented as a decisive challenge.
Source: www.laizquierdadiario.com
