After the election result was known on Sunday night, the “pre market” of Argentine stocks on Wall Street began to fly with increases of up to 15% in Banco Macro, YPF, Galicia, among others. At the end of the day, these ADRs ended with a spike of up to 50%. For its part, the Merval advanced 21.7% and recorded the largest increase so far this century.
The markets celebrated the victory of Libertad Avanza in the country. Global bonds in dollars rose strongly to 24.8%. International banks adjusted their forecasts for the dollar, and even JP Morgan anticipated a drop in country risk after the victory. The bank anticipated a reduction of more than 440 basis points, which would take the index to levels close to 650 points, currently exceeding 1,000 points.
The dollar, for its part, after threatening a collapse at the beginning of the day, ended up closing the retailer at $1,460. The wholesaler, which had ended Friday at $1,492, plummeted to $1,435. The financial ones also fell, the CCL and MEP with drops of around 6% to $1,463.12 and $1,451.78 respectively. While the blue fell 5%, trading at $1,450.
Wholesale dollar closed at $1.435 (-3.82%), it reached $1.341 and rose $94 from there.
The drop is important but much less than what was projected.- pic.twitter.com/YCucYM0WOi— Christian Buteler (@cbuteler) October 27, 2025
The election has passed, the contradictions remain
Stocks rallied on Wall Street, enthusiastic about the Government’s victory and the arrival of reforms and concessions that benefit big capital. However, many of them were barely “green” after the collapses during the year. For its part, the dollar fell less than expected, revealing the vulnerabilities of a Government that is unable to accumulate reserves, quite the opposite.
As Schoor, Cantamutto and Wainer state, in “Exporting more is not enough” (21st Century), the Argentine economy is a “cracked bucket” of currency drain. Milei, with freedom for speculators and financial scams, deregulation for transnationals and opening of capital widened the crack. Thus, in a short time, the money laundering, the trade surpluses, the IMF loan, the advance of the cereal companies with zero withholdings and even the intervention of the US Treasury itself disappeared.
The plan was to go into the elections with the dollar flat, as an anchor to inflation, the Government’s workhorse. The cost? A growing mortgage of debt, rate concessions to speculators and removal of withholdings with great benefits for the handful of cereal companies that dominate the Argentine foreign grain market.
After skipping “every last dollar,” as Caputo boasted, they went to ask the United States to intervene and the North American Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, took the reins of the economy. The conditions of such an agreement still remain to be known, but it will bring a greater loss of sovereignty.
The economy in recession and workers in debt
Milei came to the elections with an economy in recession: the second quarter saw a 0.8% drop in GDP and most consulting firms expect the third quarter to be the same, formally entering recession.
According to the consulting firm Equilibra, Milei’s chainsaw in his almost 2 years of government robbed retirees and workers of 2 months of their income. That is, of the 12 months of the year, the working class had to give up 1 month of their work to the Government surplus destined to pay the debt.
Thus, according to a BCRA report, by June the number of people in debt increased by one million, to 19.5 million people. Where the average balance per debtor is the highest in the last five years. Delinquencies are growing both through credit cards and with non-financial providers (such as virtual wallets).
In the midst of the crisis, the government announced that it will advance with its adjustment plans: labor and all kinds of reforms, more attacks on the Garrahan and universities, more dedication to the IMF and the United States. The leaders of the CGT, the CTA and the unions chose complicity or passivity, allowing the right to advance. Greater coordination and a true fighting plan are necessary to confront the Government.
Source: www.laizquierdadiario.com
