This Monday the panic seized the bags of the world. Trump’s tariff measures deepened the capitalist crisis that generated historical collapses in the stock exchanges of the main countries. The weakened Argentine economy was not exempt from the impact. The economic indicators were painted red, the country risk reached 960 points and the missing dollars further aggravated.
The reserves of the Central Bank fell below US $ 25,000 million. The BCRA suffered the demand for dollars again and sold currencies for US $ 35 million, so the gross reserves fell $ 328 million, from US $ 25,119 million au $ 24,791 million, the lowest stock since January 23, 2024.
The devaluation of the Chinese Yuan compared to the dollar this Monday (-0.4%) and the devaluation of gold (-1.5%) also had its impact on the fall in reserves. Although the devaluation was lower, to follow the commercial war – and coins – with the US, it could be deepened. The BCRA has around US $ 18,000 million in Swap with China, no less than 72% of existing gross reserves.
Despite the intervention, parallel dollars shot. The blue dollar closed to $ 1,345 for sale, so the gap was 25% with the officer. The MEP dollar operated at $ 1,370.35, so the gap was 27.4%. The dollar counted with liquidation (CCL) was offered to $ 1,360,25, 26.4% higher than the officer.
As for the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, the S&P MERVAL index of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange retreated 3.9% to 2,025,967 points, a minimum since November 12. In Wall Street, Argentine companies came to collapse up to 16.4%headed by BBVA, followed by Grupo Supervielle (-15.6%), Edenor (-15%), Port Central (-13.9%), Pampa Energía (-13.5%), South Gas Transporter (-13.4%), and Banco Macro (-13%).
Reservations in danger
The first year of Milei, managed to accumulate reserves first with the postponement of import payment (which could not last too much) and the money laundering later. The financial bicycle that mounted Caputo to contain the dollar as an anchor to inflation broke and bankers and speculators disarm their pesos in search of dollarize.
Thus, between payment of odious debt that took more than US $ 14.7 billion and the intervention in the change market, the reserves resulted in a minimum since January 23, 2024. With chainsaw in between that pulverized the income of the majorities, the government could not even accumulate reserves and turned a year ago. According to the calculation of the Eco Go consultant, the central would have negative net reserves for US $ 11,722 million and liquid holdings for just US $ 836 million.
In the remainder of the year, the rise of Trump tariffs and the commercial war that is collapsing the bags of the world complicates the entry of dollars. The falling of the commodities price that Argentina exports, such as soybeans (-2.7%)-the main export complex (24%of exports) and oil (-14%) with cow a death, affect the income of dollars by commercial route. On the other hand, the increase in country risk raises another concern by worsening the possibilities of accessing the international market to refinance the debt, which also adds greater tension to the increasingly retracting agreement with the IMF for “fresh funds”.
Emergency sovereign measures
While the capitalist crisis is deepened globally, in Argentina Milei kneels with Trump and the magnates of the world to reach a new agreement with the IMF and other entities. The bleeding of dollars of the capitalists wants to “clean up” with a new mortgage to the majorities and a devaluation that will further affect the income of the working class.
This Monday, the Central Bank published the survey of market expectations (REM), a report that publishes monthly with the forecasts of banking entities and consultants. There it worsened its inflation prognosis for the following months, in March from 2% to 2.6%. Also the value in which the official dollar will be located for the end of the year, from $ 1175 to $ 1253.
Before the new scam of Milei and Caputo, only the left proposes as an exit to this crisis the non -payment of the odious debt, which is still paid without even being investigated. The scams are not paid!
The nationalization of the banking system and foreign trade under workers administration, are complementary measures that would allow the great capital escape and speculative maneuvers, which feed devaluative expectations. In addition, cheap credits could be generated for small trade and the working people and care for national savings. These measures are part of an approach that kicks the board for a background exit, to start planning the economy from below, depending on the needs of the great majorities and not of the profits.
Faced with the economic crisis that continues to accelerate, it is also necessary to demand an emergency increase for wages and retirement. No salary should be less than the basic family basket and no retirement can be behind the retiree basket. The union leadership has been complicit in this salary attack and retirement, it is necessary to impose a struggle plan until ending this adjustment plan, so that the days of April 9 and 10 are not an isolated strike, but part of a struggle plan, which advances towards the political general strike, the only means to defeat the set of the government adjustment plan, the IMF and the great business.
Source: www.laizquierdadiario.com
