Pedro Sánchez says goodbye to the political course with a single certainty: there will be no motion of censure. Everything else is in the air: the general budgets of 2026, the scope of a more than probable government crisis, the date of the next general elections, the intentions of the parliamentary partners, the extension of the stain that corruption can leave in the two main parties …
Every day is a Vietnam for a government that has just crossed the equator of a legislature with a loud defeat in Congress, after the legislative package with which it sought to avoid a new electric blackout. The PSOE won six votes, but lost that of a decree that had been negotiated by Vice President Sara Aagesen with the Employer of the Electric, that of the renewables, the intensive industry in electricity consumption and environmental organizations. All had given their approval because, apart from the blackout, it reinforced a key economic sector.
PP and VOX, with the help of Podemos, BNG and the Aragonesist chunta formed a strange negative majority that the PSOE considers the conjunctural and that, however, the PNV seems to be consolidated slowly but inexorably. Aitor Esteban, president of Euzkadi Buru Batzar, whose analysis is always heard with interest in Madrid, has alerted this week about the drift of the legislature. Not only because Sanchez has not been able to present a project of general state budgets, but because it detects increasingly frequent boredom signals among the investiture partners. In Podemos because, in his eagerness to unmarked the government and phagocytizing to add, he no longer disturbs him to unite his votes to the PP. And in Junts because the independentistas have their own agenda and everything else is indifferent to them. Even so, no one, nor Aitor Esteban, sees any possibility of a motion of censure that has Alberto Núñez Feijóo as a candidate.
The speech of the PP, increasingly indistinguishable from Vox, makes the understanding between Basque or Catalan nationalism with the right of Feijóo, which has decided to compete for the ultra vote and not by the space of centrality, becomes unfeasible. A circumstance that in La Moncloa believes that benefits them and can end up strengthening the social support space to the government.
In other words: Sánchez, who declares himself strong to move forward, has decided to trust the cohesion of his partners precisely to the dispute between PP and Vox for the ultra -vote – as has been seen with the propagation of the hate speeches and the criminalization of immigrants to the thread of the crisis of Torre Pacheco – and also the unexpected dose of memory that the scandal montor systemic ”of the Spanish right. After months to the defensive in the case of corruption that affects two of former secretaries of the PSOE organization and the investigations on the wife and brother of the president, in the government they believe that the corrupt plot woven in the Treasury during the Rajoy cabinets has allowed them to “take their heads” in this end of the course.
Sánchez’s impact and wear after the entry into prison of the former PSOE Organization Secretary, Santos Cerdán, is not questionable, but the socialists are convinced that while Triangle Ábalos-Cerdán-Koldo was, they say, “a closed triangle”, the Montoro case is a stain that affects their entire team and will continue to extend, as has already been seen with some contract that the dispatch of influence founded by the ex-minister The Treasury signed with the Xunta de Galicia during the Presidency of Feijóo. The summary on the corrupt plot that Montoro has allegedly unbelled an internal dispute in Genoa al Foal of the incorporation of Alberto Nadal – sometimes Secretary of State in the governments of Rajoy – as the Vice -Secretary of the National Directorate of the National Directorate for his close link with former Minister now accused. And not to mention the resignation? of the Deputy Secretary General of the PP Noelia Núñez for falsifying up to three times her curriculum and the division in Genoa on the Feijóo method of choice for the configuration of her equipment.
The fact is that neither the Government arrives in August with the duties done in budgetary or Feijóo has managed to knock down, as Pedro Sánchez intended before the summer, which leads to a start of the course in September with more of the same. Until when it is something that depends exclusively on the president of the Government, although every time there are fewer voices that predict that the mandate can reach the end in 2027. Not even although in September the Executive took to Congress a project of general budgets by 2026, something that is not disposable, according to government sources.
Budgets as electoral start?
There are those who even believe, in the circle of Sánchez, who votes the budget project would be a good way to enter the electoral career. But this would be in the event that the president was thinking of an early call for next spring. “A scenario that no one has heard at this time through the mouth of Sánchez,” says one of his ministers. There are too many variables that can influence the decision: the date on which the popular Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla fixes the Andalusian regional, the electoral interests of the partners who already prepare the path of the break, the shocks that the judicial summaries of the judicial summaries and even the development of the more than 30 pending trials for corruption that the PP will have to face from autumn.
The intention is to end Julio with the balance press conference that Sánchez will offer this Monday in La Moncloa, where the achievements in economics and employment will be the axis of the appearance. And, after the holiday period, resume September with a new impulse to the social agenda, where the paental perental permits will be included for families with children up to 8 years and the expansion of the casualties by birth of 16 to 20 weeks. An initiative that Yolanda Díaz intended to approve in July and Moncloa decided to postpone until after the summer, as well as the reduction of the working day. In this case, unlike a few months ago, in Moncloa they see a certain margin to resume the negotiation with Junts and that finally supports a project that the second vice president, Minister of Labor and leader of adding has made a flag.
September will also be the month in which the Minister of the Presidency, Justice and Relations with the Cortes, Félix Bolaños, gives a new impulse to the open negotiation with the parliamentary groups for the reform of the Criminal Procedure Law and the access to the judicial career. What is not clear is whether before or after the Minister of Finance present the budget project by 2026, something for which the constitutional deadlines that establish the presentation of the text in Congress at least three months before the previous year, which in this case were an extension of those of 2024. So far, María Jesús Montero still does not approve the expense ceiling and the tax path, two previous steps and the tax Essential for the elaboration of public accounts, which already involves a delay with respect to the usual calendar, although the vice president defends that there is enough time yet.
Precisely Montero is the first name to take into account in the government crisis that they expect for autumn. The decision already taken from the first vice president and candidate for the Junta de Andalucía is to leave the cabinet the same day that Moreno Bonilla calls the regional ones, but Sánchez’s will is unknown about whether the changes in the Executive and the reach of them have to be only linked to the exit of Montoro and whether or not they must do them or not before. Another unknown, that the president will not clear, like so many others, at this time.
Source: www.eldiario.es
