Rich countries curb immigration despite lack of labor

Anti-immigration government policies and social environment restrict workers from going to high-income countries.

A report released last month showed that worker migration is falling globally, even as aging societies in rich countries are faced with growing labor shortages.

This global decline began well before the re-election of President Donald Trump, who ran his 2024 election campaign with a promise to drastically restrict immigration.

According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which monitors global economic and social policies, work-related migration to its 38 member countries fell by more than a fifth in 2024 (21%).

This drop was driven less by demand than by growing political opposition to immigration and stricter visa regimes in countries with advanced economies, the International Migration Outlook 2025 report found. In contrast, temporary migration for work continued to rise.

Decline driven by two countries

Most of the global decline in permanent labor migration has been driven by policy changes in two countries: the United Kingdom and New Zealand.

In New Zealand, the drop was linked to the end of a post-pandemic residency program that allowed more than 200,000 temporary immigrants and their dependents to settle permanently. This program ended in July 2022.

In the case of the United Kingdom, after Brexit, the local government reformed the visa for health and social assistance workers, restricting employers’ eligibility criteria and prohibiting the entry of dependents, which resulted in a sharp reduction in visa applications.

The OECD rightly highlighted the health sector as a sector where restrictions of this type could worsen labor shortages.

Migration expert Seeta Sharma, who has advised the United Nations and the government of India, warns that reforms made by the UK, including a move to tighten eligibility criteria for international students wanting to work after graduation, could be counterproductive for the country.

“It is the transition from studies to work that is being restricted,” explains Sharma. “If this happens, enrollments decline, as Indians, for example, will no longer spend large sums on education abroad if there is no clear return on investment.”

Government policies

In the case of the United States, stricter limits on H-1B visas (the main program that allows foreign professionals in areas such as technology, engineering and medicine to work in the country) were introduced during President Joe Biden’s administration.

Since then, Trump has substantially increased the cost of the visa for employers, from between $2,000 and $5,000 to $100,000. The Republican’s political agenda, more broadly, has focused on limiting permanent immigration pathways.

Australia, in turn, raised salary caps for skilled work visas, while Canada adjusted immigration pathways for temporary workers, also contributing to the broader decline in employment-related immigration.

The Nordic countries also saw big drops, with Finland seeing a 36% drop compared to 2023.

In Germany, former Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s stricter immigration policies contributed to a 12% drop in permanent immigration flows in 2024, when 586,000 foreign workers entered the country. The number of people arriving on work visas was 32% lower than the previous year. These reforms were expanded by the government of the new Federal Chancellor, Friedrich Merz.

Economics professor Herbert Brücker of Berlin’s Humboldt University says this decline creates problems for the German economy. “We need migration to replace workers who retire. Without it, we cannot maintain stable labor supply.”

High demand for workers in the EU

Across the European Union (EU), around two-thirds of jobs created between 2019 and 2023 were filled by citizens of countries outside the European bloc, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which highlights Europe’s dependence on external labor.

Globally there were 167.7 million migrant workers in 2022, according to estimates by the International Labor Organization (ILO). This represented 4.7% of the total global workforce. More than two-thirds of them, or 114.7 million, lived in high-income countries.

Despite the drop in 2024, global work-related migration remains above pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels. What the OECD report reveals is how these flows can be abruptly interrupted by political decisions, based on social fears about illegal immigration and not on real economic demand, which remains at high levels.

Trump’s second-term agenda has amplified this dynamic, with executive orders to restrict legal and illegal immigration. The Trump administration argues that these measures are necessary to protect American workers.

Option for temporary worker

Temporary or seasonal labor migration remained stable in 2024, even with the decrease in permanent flows, according to the OECD report.

This reflects the option of governments in rich countries for short-term programs that can be expanded or reduced as necessary. “The idea is: ‘Let’s bring people in when we want and close the doors when we don’t want. We’re just not going to have these ‘different’ people in our country forever'”, criticizes Sharma.

Seasonal and temporary worker programs were in high demand in Australia, Europe and North America, where employers in the agricultural, care and construction sectors filled gaps in their workforce with them.

The OECD notes that temporary migration programs are also increasingly being used by the technology sector and other highly skilled sectors.

Difficulties for integration

In addition to trying to attract more foreign workers, the OECD has urged advanced economies to better integrate them into the labor market. Among the essential measures suggested are language courses and access to social services, along with recognition of qualifications obtained in countries of origin. Immigrants are often employed in jobs that qualify them below their qualifications.

Brücker, who is a migration researcher at the German Institute for Employment Research (IAB), notes that reforms aimed at making Europe’s largest economy more attractive to foreign workers have not worked due to slow processes and bureaucracy.

“The recognition of diplomas and professional training takes years and this makes it difficult for qualified workers to come,” he says. The result is that Germany today has a deficit of around 3 million workers.

The OECD also urges governments to create clearer pathways for temporary migrant workers to transition to permanent status, ensuring their skills are fully utilized and reducing labor shortages.

While Trump often speaks positively about the need for competency-based immigration, the first year of his second term has been marked by efforts to dismantle these pathways.

Sharma notes that the often angry rhetoric from Trump and other right-wing leaders on immigration sends “shockwaves” and shapes perceptions in other countries. “The story being told is that this is a hostile country where it is difficult to get a job. These narratives play a huge role in migration movements,” says Sharma.

Originally published by DW on 12/22/2025

By Nik Martin