Record number of investors thinks US shares is too expensive: impact on Bitcoin?

A record number of professional investors believes that the US stock market is too high. This is apparent from a new survey by Bank of America among fund managers, which shows that 91 percent of the respondents see the American stock market as overvalued. That is the highest percentage since 2001.

More and more interest in foreign markets

At the same time, sentiment is shifting to foreign markets. The survey shows that the weighting of investments outside the United States has reached the highest point since February. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett warns that the recent rise in US shares can lead to a bubble.

It is striking that the average cash position in portfolios has fallen to 3.9 percent of the total. According to Hartnett, that is historically a signal that a sales wave can be near.

In the survey, investors see opportunities in emerging markets. A net 49 percent find shares in these regions undervalued.

Among the most popular investments, the respondents mention maintaining shares in the Magnificent 7, deploying on a falling dollar and buying gold.

The biggest risks that investors see are a recession caused by trade wars, stubborn inflation that stands in the way of the Federal Reserve, a sudden rise in the bondness, a stock bubble around artificial intelligence and a weakening of the dollar.

Two scenarios for the Bitcoin course

Scenario 1 – optimistic
If the worries about the US stock market lead to more inflow into alternative investments, Bitcoin can benefit. With increasing capital inflow from investors who want to spread risks, the Bitcoin can move course towards 125,000 dollars, especially if emerging markets and gold also remain in demand.

Scenario 2 – Pessimistic
A sudden wave of sales on the stock market can also touch Bitcoin because investors are looking for massive liquidity. In that case, the Bitcoin course can fall back to the zone from $ 105,000 to $ 108,000, where there was rather strong support. If macro-economic uncertainty persists, this recovery can slow down in the short term.