No one doubts that the new rise of Donald Trump to the US presidency is on a political and “cultural” level a triumph for Javier Milei and for that “Reactionary International” that he shares with the governments of Italy, Hungary or former presidents like Jair Bolsonaro. ..now neither more nor less with the president of the United States. Related in the appeal of a supposed past of national greatness, the denial of climate change and the rights won by women or the regulation of artificial intelligence, among other right-wing themes.
But to tell the truth Milei is very different from Trump or at least he does not have the profile with which the latter identifies, regardless of the measures he is going to take. The new North American president boasts of being a protectionist, nationalist and even favorable to measures of state intervention in pursuit of national interests. So much so that journalist Carlos Pagni was led to headline, somewhat polarizingly, his recent article on Trump’s victory: “The Peronist tradition lands in the White House.”
The truth is that the international media portals point out the trend towards the appreciation of the North American dollar and its consequent increase in inflation in the US and in the world. A measure that, among other issues, would affect the appreciation of the Argentine peso that Milei’s policy pursues to prevent inflation. It would also result in an increase in the cost of Argentine products for foreign trade and particularly those linked to the main trading partners, such as the United States itself.
At the same time, Trump seems to be able to announce an increase in tariffs to limit imported products, an issue that would further harm Argentine sales to the United States. The other aspect is linked to Trump’s commitment to oil and gas production, completely indifferent to climate care, his plans would aim to strengthen US production. This would cause greater competition with Argentine oil and gas production and marketing plans. If “Vaca Muerta is a world-class resource that is changing the country’s energy reality,” as the government claims from the Neuquén company’s official website, the outlook becomes gloomy if Trump increases the world’s largest oil volume. Not to mention the channels of a trade war with China, which would threaten to impose 60% tariffs on its exports and its consequences for a country like ours whose exports represent approximately 16% of GDP.
At the level of foreign policy, Trump anticipated that his policy will be to withdraw US material support from many countries that do not provide compensation that justifies it. In geopolitical matters, as has been pointed out a priori, it presupposes a greater concentration of issues within the country, with a retreat from direct interventionism in foreign issues. The most obvious case may be the prolonged war in Ukraine, which Trump has considered meaningless due to the amount of resources that the United States has invested, in addition to the excellent relationship he always maintained with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. An end to the war could result in a drop in energy and food prices, affecting exports of cereals, wheat and other agricultural products to countries like Argentina, something that would also affect Milei and the profits of the exporters. would subtract
One of the most important issues that Milei expected with a Trump victory is the authorization of a new agreement with the IMF that grants him a new Macri-style loan to be able to pay off the large interest payments on the foreign debt for next year and have fresh money. However, although the US is the main contributor to the IMF and has veto power in the organization, it has shown some skepticism, as we said above, towards international economic support, prioritizing the interests of the US first. And even if Trump wants to influence positively for new loans, it will be necessary to see how far he will want to commit to that. Needless to say, if you do it it won’t be free. The conditions in the economic field, not to mention the demands in the geopolitical field, such as the opening of the stocks and greater adjustments, will come hand in hand.
Conclusion, although Milei jumps on one leg, like the king’s jester, the success perspectives he holds may soon darken. While the next president of the United States continues not to answer the phone, Millei is already polishing his shoes and dusting his chin for a long-awaited meeting with Trump next week on a new trip to the northern country. As Andrés Malamud said in relation to the travels of the self-considered most popular politician in the world and chainsaw expert, it is not something that does not come with money but with tweets.
Source: www.laizquierdadiario.com
