In an empty congress Javier Milei spoke for more than an hour in the opening of the Ordinary sessions 2025. Wrapped in an international scandal for the scam of cryptogate, he decided to dedicate much of his speech to the “achievements” of his management. The libertarian repeated already known fallacies, in terms of inflation that was stopped but not to mention that it was with recession, loss of jobs and a collapse of mass consumption. He argued that 10 million people were taken out of poverty, but wages are not enough. He also threw himself against the State and the political caste – the same one week ago saved him from having to give accounts to a investigative commission for the $ pound fraud– Surusing the dismissal of 40 thousand state workers.
He spoke against the industry and claimed the decrease in taxes such as luxury cars and that of personal goods that favors the mega rich. Regarding the fiscal surplus and the benefits of the Posta Plan, he did not mention that he was at the expense of adjusting retirees and cutting areas such as health and education. He referred to the monetary stabilization process as the most successful, surpassing Cavallo’s convertibility, with whom he had a strong crossing. What he did not say is that doubts about the economic direction flood the “markets”, the actions and bonds suffered strong falls in February and the country risk rises marking the possibility of default.
On debt to the IMF, just like Peronism said they will “honor commitments”. And he called the Congress to vote in favor of the agreement with the Fund, whenever that happens. But this diagnosis of the country and economic indicators sound very different from reality, his speech was one was to the great majorities. Let’s review Milei’s main fallacies, the scammer:
-Inflation outdated
The president said that “we continue to make inflation fall. When it was already evident that inflation had entered a decreasing path, they began with the accusations of Berreta Keynesianism saying that we were going to die and that the economic activity was going to sink. ” Indeed The economy sank Although Milei denies it. Inflation slowed thanks to the brake of the economy (recession) for the fall of consumption, the adjustment, employment was destroyed, that is Milei and Caputo broke everything so that prices loosen up, as well as maintained a “cheap dollar” constituting an exchange anchor. Despite this, In 2024 inflation remained at high levels and was 117.8%according to INDEC.
This data could be worse if INDEC will update the inflation measurement methodology that is based on a consumption basket of 2004/2005 and, today, undervalue the effect of rates of rates on public services. This means that INDEC measures inflation on backward consumption structures that were modified by technological changes (for example, more internet, cell telephony instead of fixed telephony is used) and for changes in relative prices. If the methodology had been updated, in 2024, inflation would have been 133.6%, that is, 15.8 points higher than the INDEC reportedaccording to the economy Martín González Rozada. This worsens the data of loss of the purchasing power of salaries, retirements and social programs.
The Government is responsible for not updating the INDEC methodology, as well as the Massist Marcos Lavagna, who is in charge of the body.
Another way to make visible the contradictions between the official inflation data used by the Government in its speech to show an achievement is the growing weight of income services. That is, a higher percentage of salaries to pay transport, light, gas and water is increasingly allocated. Prepaid and rent, as shown by a report by the Focus Market consultant who indicated that In March a family of 4 members must spend more than $ 2 million to cover the basic basket of services they prepare.
In addition, the president said that the poverty He went down during his first year of management. But as with inflation, the number has limitations. The basic basket used to measure poverty is still based on consumption habits of 2004-2005, which underestimates the impact of the rise on rates and public services. If it was adjusted with the CPI of the City of Buenos Aires, the poverty rate would be 39.6%, according to the Institute of Public Thought and Policies (IPPyP). The data also does not reflect the greatest deterioration of the living conditions of the popular majorities, greater labor precariousness, savings were spent and many homes were borrowed to reach the end of the month.
Faithful to its Border style, Milei said that in the last 50 years poverty went from 5% to 50%, perpetuating the decline that falls on millions of people government after government. At this sensitive point, two elements underlie that it is necessary to take into account, the first is that the poverty rate measures of the 70s are not currently governing. This was confirmed in his tweet the cedlas specialist, Leo Turarolli.
Beyond that, it is true that in the country poverty was increasing its structural floor in recent decades and this is closely related to the consequences of debt crises with the IMF, its adjustment plans and structural reforms. This does not speak Milei, but following the path of external indebtedness, which is a looting of resources and the wealth generated in the country, has worsened after each crisis of debt the living conditions of the working people. This path was the one that followed each government and the one that ratifies Milei.
-We did not talk much: salaries and retirement in ruins
Milei said that “the adjustment fell on the caste and never on the most vulnerable sectors.” But this was not so. Salaries and retirements were adjusted and everything that was lost in recent years is not recovered. According to INDEC data, The average real salary of 2024 of the registered private sector fell 6%, in the public sector the decrease is 20%and in the unregistered private of 30%.
You can also see how much it was lost in pesos. As calculated by the viewpoint of the current work and the economy (Mate), to each worker and worker of the private sector registered more than 1 million pesos during the last year and each employee or public employee more than 3.3 million pesos. Overall, There was a direct looting of 19.2 billion pesos that the employees lost and mostly pocketed the great entrepreneurs.
Los Retirees They were another of the sectors adjusted by Milei and Caputo. According to data from the Congress Budget Office, the purchasing power of assets higher than the minimum registered a real 18.7% drop in the average of 12 months of 2024 compared to the same period of 2023; Meanwhile, the minimum (with bonds) assets lost 15.0%. Retirees and retirees every Wednesday concentrate and mobilize in Congress against the ongoing adjustment, in claim for their assets, against the end of the pension moratorium, but the government only offers sticks and gases to our older adults.
-Motasierra and recession
Javier Milei said that his “chainsaw” policy will continue. That is, the adjustment will be deepened. The president ended his first year with a fiscal surplus. The formula to reach it was the Costarada with dismissals to state workers and liquefield to retirement, pensions, transfers to universities, provinces, transportation subsidies, energy (implied rates increase) and public workers’ salaries.
The strong adjustment sank the economy. Economic activity collapsed 1.8% in 2024 compared to 2023, according to INDEC. In December, the Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE) registered a 5.5% rise in the year -on -year comparison and 0.5% compared to November in the endless measurement. “Since April that the economy does not stop growing and that you, Keynesians, you cannot stop crying,” Milei celebrated in Congress. The president celebrates the December year -on -year increase, but the comparison is against a low base, it was the month of a stagnant economy after the strong devaluation of Luis Caputo. Consumption is not yet recovered, neither does public works, the commercial balance (difference between exports and imports) was reduced in January product of imports.
The government wants to show a growing economy, but more than a decade ago it is stagnant. Besides, World Cimbronazos cannot be ruled out due to the impact of the implementation of Donald Trump’s tariffs and that will affect the local economy. Milei’s friendly photos and statements with Trump will not be able to avoid the collates of the world economy.
-FMI and Dollar: Congress support request
Milei said that “we are advancing in an agreement with the IMF” and anticipated that in the next few days he will ask “the Congress to support the government in this new agreement with the IMF.” This request is because the fund usually demands political support for a new agreement.
The fund also intends a devaluation (it doesn’t matter when they read this) to advance an agreement. The Minister of Economy held a virtual meeting with Gita Gopinath, the number two of the fund, but for the moment there are only general statements in the social network X (“Excellent conversation with the minister”, “Positive advances”), but there were no concrete ads about the arrival of fresh dollars as Luis Caputo asks.
Meanwhile February ended with the nervous “markets.” There were casualties from Argentine ADRs in the United States of up to 33.9%, led by Bioceres, Globant and Supervielle, there were also falls from the Merval panel that reached up to 27.9%. The Merval index retreated 14% in pesos and 16.8% measured in dollars in cash with liquidation (CCL). It also raised the country risk to 780 points at the end of February when at the end of December 2024 it was 635 points.
The uncertainty in the “markets” (the economic elite) is due to the negative impact of the first measures of Donald Trump along with the lack of definition of an agreement with the fund and the implications that it can have in the stocks and in the price of the dollar in a context where the free availability reserves are negative, according to specialists around the US $ 10,000 million, a figure similar to what the government received in 2023. More instability Milei’s scam with the cryptocurrency.
In addition, the interventions of the Central Bank follow not to increase the parallel contributions of the dollar, which were moved anyway. It is estimated that in January the interventions of the BCRA so that the dollar does not rise would have cost it almost US $1,000 million. Several economists talk about a exchange delay. The government intends to maintain the exchange rate to prevent inflation from shooting again and more in an electoral year. But the level of the exchange rate has consequences that the current account of the Central Bank is negative since July last year, this means that more dollars come from those that enter the country.
The outputs that are proposed are to continue this course or devalue, but no path is beneficial for the working class. We need another way out and for that we must face the ongoing looting of Milei and Caputo. Measures such as reject the agreement with the IMFmobilize by the sovereign ignorance of fraudulent debt, the state monopoly of foreign trade to be managed based on social needs and not depending on the need for financial speculators with a ironed dollar or a few exporting companies, of the agriculture, which benefit from a devaluation.
Source: www.laizquierdadiario.com
