On the edge of the commercial abyss with the US, the EU intends to react

While Washington targets copper, steel and European cars, the block evaluates political and economic revides with surgical targets in the US heart

While the clock runs towards the end of August 1, European Union officials are preparing for a new round of internal conversations this week. The goal: to build a concrete plan of measures that the bloc may adopt if attempts failed according to the United States, led by an increasingly inflexible Donald Trump. The tone of the US president has worsened in recent weeks, and the possibility of a transatlantic commercial escalation is already seriously treated behind the scenes of Brussels.

Despite the “overwhelming preference” for maintaining the EU’s dialogue, diplomats and negotiators face the harsh reality that last week’s conversations in Washington did not yield consistent advances. The next two weeks will be decisive, but the climate is apprehended. The European Union, according to sources close to the negotiations, sees with concern the hardening of the American posture, which would now be pressing for an almost universal tariff of more than 10% of the bloc products – with very few exceptions.

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These limited exemptions would, for the moment, include strategic sectors such as aviation, some medical devices, generic drugs, certain alcoholic beverages and specific manufacturing equipment that are considered indispensable to US industry. Still, the fear is that the list of exceptions will be further shrinking the oscillations of Trump, known for unilateral and unpredictable decisions.

In addition to tariffs, both sides discuss quotas and ceilings for sectors such as steel and aluminum – metals that have become frequent targets from US protectionist policy. Negotiations also involve sensitive points such as supply chains, digital commerce, public purchases and non -tariff barriers. But even if a sketch accordingly is designed, he will still need Trump’s direct endorsement. And there is another critical point: no one knows for sure what will be the final decision of the US President.

In early July, Trump sent a letter to the EU warning that if there was no agreement, a 30% would focus on most European products from August. As an aggravating factor, a 25% rate on European cars and auto parts has already been increased, as well as an increase on steel and aluminum. Products such as semiconductors and medicines are also in the sights. A tariff of 50% over copper It was the most recent among US impositions. It is estimated that today US taxes reach about € 380 billion (US $ 442 billion) in European products – or approximately 70% of all EU exports to the American territory.

Prior to the hardening of the speech, the European authorities believed they were close to signing an initial pact around a standard rate of 10%. There was optimism. Now, however, the European Commission is cautious. Sought by the press, the spokesman for the agency responsible for commercial negotiations said only that he would not comment on ongoing talks.

In parallel, EU member states begin to align around possible, including retaliatory answers. Rebalancing measures, however, will depend on delicate political calculations. There are differences between countries about how much economic sacrifice are willing to accept in the name of a firm position against Washington. Some admit to accepting higher rates if, on the other hand, ensure strategic exemptions.

The movement is reinforced by a politically weighing data: the US commercial deficit with the European Union. The imbalance worsened in 2025, doubling compared to the same period last year, according to US Census Bureau data. Part of this is due to the anticipation of imports by American companies, fearing the intensification of the tariff war.

Meanwhile, Brussels keeps a list of possible contracted on the table. The block has already approved retaliatory tariffs on € 21 billion In US products – an arsenal that can be activated quickly. Targets are strategic: agricultural products such as Louisiana soybeans (US mayor’s homeland Mike Johnson), birds, motorcycles and other internal political weight items in the United States.

In addition, Europeans prepare an even more robust package, which includes tariffs on € 72 billion in American products. The aim is in industrial sectors and US economy icons: Boeing planes, cars manufactured in the United States and the traditional Bourbon whiskey.

But the EU also considers going beyond the rates. Possible restrictions on public contracts, export controls and even impediments to American investments in European territory. A growing number of countries even advocates the activation of Anticerciking Instrument (ACI) – EU’s most powerful commercial tool to react to practices that configure foreign political pressure via commerce.

This, if adopted, would allow the European Commission to adopt retaliation actions against the Trump government, such as surcharge on US technology giants or restrictions on US companies access to the European market. The ACI was created as a distant instrument, but current winds indicate that it can be triggered in a direct response to US threats.

For now, the Member States await the consequences of the next trading rounds, but the order in Brussels is clear: prepare to act quickly. The risk of commercial collapse between the two largest economic blocks in the world never seemed so close. And the price of an impasse can be too high for both sides.

A trade agreement between the US and the EU would depend on cars, agro and Trump

Negotiations between the European Union and the United States are narrowed within a few days of August 1, but the possibility of a definitive trade agreement remains surrounded by strategic obstacles – and an unpredictable variable: US President Donald Trump himself. Two sectors stand out as the main friction points at this time: the automotive industry and agriculture.

According to sources close to the negotiations, the EU is committed to limiting the agricultural tariffs imposed by Washington to a maximum of 10%. The US, in turn, proposed a rate of 17% on European agricultural productsexpanding the distance between the two sides. At the same time, Europeans reject the idea of a “compensation mechanism” suggested by some automakers, which would allow reduced rates in exchange for higher productive investments in US territory. Brussels fears that this model encourages a production escape from Europe to the US.

With this, European negotiators turn their focus to the automotive sector, where the potential impact of American tariffs is gigantic. A rate of 25% about cars and auto parts exported by the EU, with additional threats on other industrial segments. At the negotiation table, the block also tries to ensure broader exemptions – as already happens in the aviation sectors and medical devices – and presses for tariff relief for distilled drinks and winestwo markets relevant to countries such as France, Italy and Spain.

Even with partial advances, conversations follow on unstable ground. European retaliatory measures suspended in the past, in response to Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum, are scheduled to be automatically reactivated at midnight on Tuesdayif there is no further extension. According to diplomatic sources, the current EU recommendation is for another postponement, in the name of continuity of dialogue. But the political breath for concessions is running out.

An element of uncertainty hangs over all dealings: Trump has not yet spoken publicly about the arrangements under discussion. Sources involved in the negotiations warn that any technical understanding can abruptly crumble if the president unilaterally decides to veto the terms. Trump recently sent letters to more than 20 countries announcing unilateral tariffs on a wide range of products. And if the taxes were not enough already in force, he threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU this monthreversing the 10% truce temporarily established.

In addition, the American president started a sectoral offensive, aiming pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and even copperwhich has already been taxed by 50%. Even if an agreement is sealed in the coming days, he will not automatically protect the EU of these specific tariffs. The block tries to negotiate some degree of preferential treatment For strategic sectors, but has not yet obtained clear guarantees from the Americans.

Faced with instability, Brussels continues to prepare for a possible collapse of negotiations. THE List of contracted already approved Includes rates on € 21 billion ($ 24.5 billion) in US products, ready to be applied immediately. These targets were chosen with political accuracy: Louisiana soy, electoral stronghold of the mayor, Mike Johnson; birds; motorcycles and other agricultural products.

And don’t stop there. On a second front of retaliation, the European Union set up an additional arsenal Tariffs on € 72 billion in American products, focusing on sectors of high economic and symbolic visibility, such as Boeing aircraft, US -made cars and the traditional Bourbon whiskey. At the same time, the Block Member States are being consulted on non -tariff measures that can achieve strategic interests from the US, such as export controls e restrictions on the participation of US companies in European public contracts.

This new phase of negotiations is marked by an EU attempt to identify US vulnerabilities in relation to the European marketwhether in industrial supplies, sensitive technologies or consumer goods. The logic behind this is clear: if it is necessary to respond firmly, that is surgically, reaching political and economic pressure points.

The European Commission, in turn, maintains official silence. Negotiations follow under confidentiality, and guidance is to avoid public statements that can be interpreted as climbing. Behind the scenes, however, the climate is of urgency. Diplomats know that time is short and that Any hesitation can be expensive to companies, jobs and production chains interconnected between the two sides of the Atlantic.

Meanwhile, the private sector observes with apprehension. From auto manufacturers to agricultural producers, through wineries, pharmaceutical companies and giants of technology, everyone has something to lose – or negotiating – in the coming hours. And the fate of the agreement will, once again, depend on the words and decisions of A single man in Washington.

With information from Bloomberg*