Luis Caputo comes from committing VARIOUS NON -FORCED ERRORS In the signs it offers to the “markets”, which is the only thing that matters to the government.
Let us remember the famous “The dollar floats, therefore, anyone who seems cheap, grabs the weights and buy, do not lose it, champion”which launched on July 1. Since then, the official wholesale dollar climbed almost $ 60.
Another non -forced error was the “OFF” with Alejandro Fantino on Wednesday: it was aimed at discouraging the vote on Thursday in the Senate, where the government lost by win.
Fantino talked about three reactors of the “spaceship”: current account deficit, exchange rate and fiscal surplus. And he said that the government wanted to turn the fiscal surplus reactor and that until December the ship was going to move from the turbulence that the fiscal deficit could generate.
Fantino said that the “markets” were going to catalog “noise” and “quilombo” what would happen and that the media were going to wonder if Milei arrives in October.
Fantino painted a panorama with so many problems that Minister Caputo had to go out to say that the predicted catastrophe was not such and that Fantino had been edited. But, simultaneously, Caputo ratified that terrifying panorama If the Senate voted as he finally voted.
The idea is simple: There is a spacecraft that works perfectlyaccording to the plan, But there are mandrels who want to throw down. Now Is it true that the ship works so well? Let’s see.
The loss of the surplus
The Congress Budget Office reported this week that In June the government stopped having a fiscal surplus. On the contrary, it presented a primary deficit (without counting debt payments) for $ 1 billion and a financial deficit (after paying debt services) for $ 2.7 billion.
While it is true that in the accumulated of the first semester the government still retains the primary and financial surplus, The dynamic is that the expense falls in real terms, but to a lesser extent than the drop in income.
That is, under these conditions, The dynamic is to grow the deficit in the coming monthsunless an economic miracle allows you to increase the collection greatly.
A current account full of holes
Minister Caputo told Fantino that the current account deficit was not serious compared to the one that has Paraguay.
The current account can be observed from INDEC information or from data from the Central Bank, which are somewhat more updated. They use different methodologies. Anyway, what important is to observe the dynamics.
The year 2024, both the current account of INDEC and the Central Bank’s exchange balance ended with positive numbers. But in dynamics A deterioration is observed in both cases since the mid -last year And there should be no doubt that this deterioration is linked to exchange delaythat is, the dollar artificially cheap.
Some data that arise from the Central Bank’s exchange balance is that In the accumulated until May the current account was deficit at $ 4,805 million and that in that deficit the Output of dollars for payment of services, mainly tourism, but also for the interest payments of the debt.
In the central bank account, other alarming data are observed: for example, the direct foreign investmentwhich is the great bet of the government to get dollars, produced an output of US $ 1,679 million. That is, it exists foreign disinversion.
Something worse happens with the dynamics of the dollars of the “savers.” Between April and May, the formation of external assets shows an output of US $ 5,247 millionwhich we could associate with one of the causes of capital escape. That is to say, Caputo’s measures so that people take out the dollars from the mattress not only did not workbut the opposite is happening to what is sought. Not only that: the dollars sent by the IMF in April are draining from the hands to the government.
This dynamic that reflects the data until May continued. A synthetic measure to see it is that Between July 4 and yesterday, July 11, the net reserves of the Central Bank passed from a negative land of US $ 4.2 billion to a negative land of US $ 8,500 million. A huge bleeding product of Debt payments in dollars made during the last week.
Exchange tension
The escalation of the dollar of the last weeks has nothing to do with the non -forced errors of Caputo. It is not a problem of poorly formulated statements, of an error in political communicationthat existed, but A “plan” that faces debt turbulence and the country’s chronic emptying. Those problems always creak on the same side: the dollar.
Those problems are those who warned the J.P. Morgan when advised a certain disarmament of “Carry Trade” and Morgan Stanley Capital International when in his MSCI index left the country in a category that advise against speculative funds to have Argentine assets.
The Government of Milei and its Minister Caputo are shaken by the Frankenstein they created.
Source: www.laizquierdadiario.com
