With the ironed dollar and the agreement with the IMF the government of mercy It aims to simulate that the economy is stable, but below The reality of millions is difficult every day. The inflation In March it amounted to 3,7%a very large jump that does not fit Milei’s “technical” explanation that the fiscal surplus (based on a fierce adjustment) is the solution to all problems.
He Survey of market expectations (REM) That the Central Bank performs, it shows that for April an index greater than 3%is expected, a rise of 1 percentage point compared to the measurement of the previous month, averaging an expectation of 3.2%.
For its part, the INDEC published two reports on the march of the Economic activity. He Industrial Production Index (IPI) He had his minimum registration since June 2024, with a 4.5% drop In relation to the previous month. Although in interannual terms the sector presented an improvement of 5.2%, this does not represent the reality of the manufacturing industry drowned by the exchange scheme and its structural backwardness, because the comparison base (May 2024) is very low and that the variation was more limited than that of the previous three months.
LCG consultancy explained that 13 of the 16 industrial items exhibited monthly deterioration. The most negative numbers were observed in tobacco (-34.7%), rubber and plastic (-12.4%), non-metallic mineral products (-9%), chemicals (-8.7%) and cars (-8%). At the other extreme, the only activities that eluded the trend were basic metallic industries, other oil transport and refining equipment.
For its part, INDEC also stood out in another report on the activity in the construction . In that case, the contraction was 4.1% in March compared to February, the highest collapse so far this year. Also in this case there was an improvement of 15.8% in interannual terms, based on a very low floor. 73.9% of the companies that mainly carry out private works foresee that the level of activity of the sector will not change over the next three months, while 14.0% estimate that it will increase and 12.1% that will decrease.
In the monetary plane, the Central Bank has been losing reservations after the important entrance due to the disbursement of US $ 12,000 million of the IMF and other credit agencies in April. In the last six days the reserves fell $ 1,282 milliondespite its non -intervention in the change market. International gross reserves sank US $ 307 million this Thursday, to US $ 37,997 million, which is due to a drop in the price of gold and other currencies.
The government began to say now that it will implement a mechanism for Argentines to “take the dollars from the mattress”, without giving too many details. Meanwhile, the field is not liquidating its exports because it speculates with a devaluation and a higher exchange rate.
Is that Emergency to get dollars By the Government it responds to a problem of delay and structural dependence, which is not resolved with more indebtedness such as the Caputo formula, but to cut all the ways of escape by which the large capital takes out its profits and the currencies of the country: payments of interest interest, capital escape, repatriation of utilities and dividends, and illegal maneuvers such as the superfacturing of imports or subfacturing of import Exports. A task that requires affecting interests of the powerful (ignoring the fraudulent debt, nationalizing banks and foreign trade) and that other sectors of capital will not carry out, but can only take in their hands the main interested parties because the adjustment stops falling on itself: the working class and the poor people.
Source: www.laizquierdadiario.com
